Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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244 FXUS62 KJAX 051231 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 831 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf No major updates to the forecast at this time. Convection is still anticipated to develop this afternoon and evening with stronger developments occurring along boundaries and areas of convergence. && .NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)... Currently, as of 2 AM, decaying showers are drifting eastward across inland SE GA and may linger another or so with the weak support of diffluent flow aloft. Once activity finally fizzles out, skies will trend mostly clear and set the stage for mostly sunny conditions later this morning. After days of little steering flow, today will mark the transition to a southwesterly flow as the ridge axis associated with low level ridge, centered to the east, begins to drift south. Deeper moisture will leak eastward and PWATs of 1.5-1.75" will be redistributed across the entire forecast area. That moisture will elevate diurnal instability today and aid in convective developments along the sea, gulf, and river breezes this afternoon. Due to the changing steering flow the Atlantic sea breeze will not be as progressive today resulting in an eastward shift in the corridor of scattered showers and t`storms. CAMs are in fair agreement on a sea breeze interaction late this afternoon roughly along the US-301 corridor. Anticipate the more robust storms, capable of gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph, occasional lightning, and slow-moving downpours, to be along that corridor before drifting toward the beaches as they weaken during the early evening. There is some potential for additional storms into the evening and possibly beyond midnight as a compact shortwave lifts across SE GA; however, anticipate that with the loss of heating that convection coverage will be only isolated to widely scattered at best after sundown. Building heat and a slower Atlantic sea breeze will promote a warmer day with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s at the immediate coast. Tonight, temperatures will fall back into the low 70s under mostly clear skies. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night) Mid level troughing moves in from the west over the region in the afternoon/evening coupled with a frontal boundary at the surface will produce higher chances for precipitation and isolated thunderstorms. SE GA will have chances of 60-70% while NE FL will see chances around 50-60%. Day time temperatures in the low to mid 90s area wide cooling into the 70s overnight. Friday, A cold front approaches SE GA from the northwest and moves through the area into the evening, bringing chances for precipitation and isolated storms along the front as it makes its way over the region. Daytime temperatures will be in the 90s cooling into the upper 60s to mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) The cold front looks to settle just south of the area saturday and weaken by Sunday morning. Chances for convection over the weekend will be around 10-20% in the afternoon for NE FL Saturday and Sunday with SE GA having 15-20% chances Sunday afternoon and into the evening. Next week looks to be a wet one as another front looks to make its way in at the beginning of the week and stick around into mid week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Initially VFR conditions today with diurnal convection starting to develop by around 19z this afternoon. Strongest storm developments will occur along the sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence later in the afternoon with storms crossing through the Jax Metro area by around 22z with remaining convection dispersing and moving offshore by around 04z. Winds will build from out of the southeast this afternoon and will become more mild and variable after nightfall. && .MARINE... High pressure will be to the east today and gradually push away through the end of the week as a cool front arrives Friday night. Offshore, winds will trend southerly today while nearshore direction turn easterly or east-southeasterly with the sea breeze. Ahead of the cold front winds will turn offshore and keep the sea breeze pinned at the beach. This will enhance thunderstorm chances in the nearshore waters Thursday afternoon. The cold front will push through the waters Saturday before it stalls and dissipates to the south on Sunday. Winds will turn offshore once again early next week as another cool front approaches from the north and this front may stall across the local waters through the middle of next week. Rip Currents: Despite fairly low surf, as the sea breeze develops there will be a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all beaches. On Thursday, offshore flow will lower risk to a low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches and a Low Risk at SE GA beaches. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites on Thursday and Friday: June 6 June 7 ---------------------- Jacksonville 99/1985 100/1993 Gainesville 100/1927 99/1985 Alma, GA 101/1985 98/1993 Craig Airport 99/2011 96/1985 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 72 92 72 / 30 30 70 40 SSI 85 74 93 75 / 20 10 50 60 JAX 91 71 96 72 / 30 30 50 40 SGJ 88 73 95 74 / 20 20 50 40 GNV 94 69 94 71 / 50 30 50 30 OCF 95 71 95 73 / 50 20 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$