684
FXUS62 KJAX 052014
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
414 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Prevailing flow will begin to establish itself from out of the
southwest today as high pressure over the Atlantic moves further
off to the east and high pressure ridging over the gulf recedes to
the west. PWAT values will start to rise unevenly today and
tonight upwards to about 2 inches in some places as an advancing
cold front presses down into the region from out of the northwest.

Scattered showers and T`storms currently developing towards I-95
and back along I-10 will build eastward between highway 301 and
I-95 through the rest of afternoon and early evening hours with
stronger developments expected to occur along diurnal boundaries
and areas of collision. Convection will dissipate and move
offshore overnight with a potential for patchy fog forming during
the early morning hours on Thursday. High temperatures for this
afternoon will rise into the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and
in the mid to upper 80s along the shoreline. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Southern stream mid level shortwave separating from a negatively
tilted northern stream trough near the western Great Lakes will
move across the deep south into the area on Thursday. This feature
will support a wave of showers and thunderstorms along a prefrontal
trough extending from the FL peninsula into the Carolinas with
numerous showers and thunderstorms over inland SE GA and more
scattered coverage over NE FL where southwest winds around the
high pressure ridge axis south of the area will pin the Atlantic
seabreeze near the I-95 corridor and develop afternoon to early
evening T`storms. Skies will be initially mostly sunny, then trend
partly cloudy through the afternoon before storms. The previously
mentioned southwest flow will create high temperatures into the mid
to upper 90s as the Atlantic seabreeze struggles to move towards
I-95 with low 90s well inland.

Thursday night, T`storms will drift east back into the Atlantic
waters towards midnight before fading with skies staying partly
cloudy, then turning mostly clear closer to sunrise. Lows will
be in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast.

Friday, passage of southern stream shortwave will bring in drier
air and northwest flow aloft ahead of the surface cold front which
will help limit coverage of showers of thunderstorms to areas more
over NE FL with only isolated coverage over SE GA and best focus
along the pinned Atlantic seabreeze near I-95. High temperatures
will be similar to Thursday in the mid to upper 90s, but extend
westward to include all inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Saturday, broad ridging aloft will stretch from the NW Gulf coast
into the deep south with weak surface high pressure building over
the upper TN river valley. Light northwest winds will be in place
over our area with dry, light northwest flow aloft and sunny skies that
will allow highs to reach the mid 90s south of Waycross and the
upper 90s over north central FL with low 90s north and west of
Waycross. Despite the hot temperatures, lower dewpoints behind the
cold front into the mid 50s in SE GA and the upper 50s inland over
NE FL will temporarily lower heat index values closer to the actual
temperature.

Sunday, the upper ridge will shift into the Gulf of Mexico as a
broad longwave trough sinks south from the Great Lakes/New England
towards the OH river valley and central Appalachians. This will
raise heights above our area and the FL peninsula and along with
westerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW will create
very hot temperatures in the upper 90s for most of the area with
isolated readings around 100 degrees near the St Johns river basin
as the Atlantic seabreeze stays east of I-95. Heat index values
will climb to 100-105 as dewpoints rise a bit compared to Saturday.

Early next week, troughing will sink to the Gulf coast and support
a cold front entering the area by late Monday and stalling across
NE FL on Tuesday. This will lead to higher coverage of showers and
T`storms. Highs will cool a little on Monday into the mid to upper
90s for highs and more so on Tuesday to near normal levels around 90
degrees.

Lows will begin the period near normal inland in the mid to upper
60s over SE GA on Saturday and all inland areas by Sunday with
coastal areas in the low 70s, then rise to above normal levels
Monday as the front approaches into the low to mid 70s area wide
and nudge down to the low 70s inland/mid 70s coast on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Scattered convection will develop this afternoon and evening
along the diurnal sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence,
likely occurring near the I-95 corridor. Flow pattern will become
less stagnant with winds gradually becoming more out of the SW-W
by the end of the forecasted period with east coast sea breeze
winds not pushing much past I-295 today. Showers and storms are
expected to begin developing at around 19-20z today with storms
crossing through the Jax Metro area by around 22z with remaining
convection dispersing and moving offshore by around 04z. Potential
for patchy light fog forming during the early morning hours on
Thursday with sites GNV and VQQ most likely to be affected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will be to the east today and gradually push away
through the end of the week as a cool front arrives Friday night.
Offshore, winds will trend southerly today while nearshore winds
turn easterly or east southeasterly with the sea breeze this
afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, winds will turn offshore and
keep the sea breeze pinned at the beach. This will enhance
thunderstorm chances in the nearshore waters Thursday afternoon.
The cold front will push through the waters Saturday before it
stalls and dissipates to the south on Sunday. Winds will turn
offshore once again early next week as another cool front
approaches from the north and this front may end up stalling
across the local waters through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for all area Beaches
through this evening. Thursday, a moderate risk of rip currents
will be in effect for the NE FL beaches with a low risk at the SE
GA beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites on
Thursday and Friday:

                June 6      June 7
              ----------------------
Jacksonville    99/1985    100/1993
Gainesville     100/1927   99/1985
Alma, GA        101/1985   98/1993
Craig Airport   99/2011    96/1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  71  93 /  30  60  30  10
SSI  74  92  74  93 /  10  40  40  20
JAX  71  96  72  96 /  30  40  30  20
SGJ  73  95  74  95 /  20  40  30  30
GNV  69  94  71  95 /  30  30  20  30
OCF  71  95  73  95 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$