Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
414 FXUS62 KKEY 021418 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1018 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1017 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 It has been a relatively active morning across mainly the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. KBYX is detecting scattered showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms along roughly a line extending from just north of the Dry Tortugas, eastward across the Florida Bay and into our extreme eastern waters. This activity is drifting westward at about 10 knots and has been very pulse-y in nature. This is not surprising looking at this morning`s sounding, which showed a modestly unstable environment, low shear, and no discernible cap. There is however, a layer of dry air in the mid levels between 500 and 850 mb. This is likely also lending to the pulse nature of these storms and why we are seeing storms that quickly sprout up do not tend to last too long after spitting out some lightning. Otherwise, since most of the convection has missed the island chain thus far, temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Given the volatile nature of the atmosphere, will leave the high end chance PoPs of 50 percent currently in the forecast. As we have seen thus far any boundaries out there have activated with showers and brief thunderstorms. With a surface high pressure centered near Bermuda and a low level ridge roughly in the same location, we will have an easterly steering flow this morning, gradually and briefly backing to north of east. In fact, looking east there are additional boundaries moving across our waters and towards the island chain. This will continue to serve as the focal point for additional showers and thunderstorms. As the steering flow goes north of east this afternoon we will then also have to shift our focus to possible cloud line development. All in all, keep the umbrella handy! && .MARINE... Issued at 1017 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect. That being said, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to proliferate across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Mariners should exercise caution as the stronger storms have a history of producing wind gusts to near 25 knots, along bouts of lightning, and reduced visibility within moderate to heavy downpours. High pressure just off the Carolina coast will weaken as it lengthens eastward into the atlantic over the next few days. As a result mostly easterly breezes will range gentle to moderate, peaking in the afternoon and evenings and lulling overnight into the morning hours. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1017 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected at both EYW and MTH today. A higher than normal rain chance today has resulted in a VCSH mention in both TAFs. Developing convection will be pulsey and widely scattered resulting in large uncertainty in exact location and timing. Amendments will be used to describe short term sub-VFR conditions with showers and storms passing directly over terminals. Rain chances will remain enhanced through tonight and likely peak as winds increase to 10 to 15 knots and some higher gusts this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in day in Keys Weather History, in 1966 an F2 tornado unaffiliated with a tropical cyclone injured one and produced $25k in damage in Key West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 80 89 80 / 50 50 40 40 Marathon 89 80 88 80 / 50 50 50 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest