Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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563 FXUS64 KLIX 011718 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms may develop and dissipate over the region this morning, especially in eastern areas where there is a lingering mid level convergence axis, behind a weak front that is now situated near Mobile. PW values are slightly higher in the east as well, keeping enhanced pops over this area through the early afternoon before another mid level short wave moves in from the west. This next shortwave will cause pops across the entire region to increase and bring a decaying MCS across LA, which will hopefully sweep over the waters before coming too far into the local area. For both today and Sunday, the highest pops will be during the afternoon when we have sufficient instability, high lapse rates, and moderate to high PWs, causing a few instances of gusty winds and some hail. There is some mid level drying which could enhance downbursts we normally get from high cape days. Any storms that linger could cause flash flooding issues, especially in urban and low lying areas. The upper disturbance will just cause pops to linger into the evening more than usual. Given the combo of a summertime high CAPE pattern and a weak upper level system, CAMs are having a harder than usual time at picking up any sort of consistent timing. Ridging builds in from the west Sunday night leading to drier conditions until a few normal summer afternoon storms pop up Monday afternoon. Highs today and Sunday remain in the upper 80s but with the slight ridging Monday, highs will climb a few degrees. Lows remain in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The previously mentioned weak ridging remains at least through Wednesday night with mostly dry weather outside a few afternoon thunderstorms. This will allow highs to climb back into the lower 90s for most areas with heat index values in the lower 100s. A very large upper low over the Great Lakes will drop a front south towards the area on Thursday with a weak mid level disturbance. NBM keeps pops elevated on Thursday as the boundary approaches, maybe from outflow boundaries? Otherwise, it looks like if the front does make it, the associated rain/storms would be more Friday, with NBM pops likely too low at this time. Highs/lows remain the same as before although we may see slightly lower lows and heat index values on Saturday, depending on what the front does. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. MVFR conditions will be possible for brief periods due to lower ceilings caused by vicinity showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Conditions will return to VFR by the late evening hours for all area airports. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Southerly winds around 5-10 knots will remain through the forecast period. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today through Sunday with isolated storms each afternoon thereafter. Waves/seas around storms will be higher. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 86 69 89 / 20 50 0 20 BTR 72 90 74 92 / 30 60 0 20 ASD 71 88 73 91 / 30 50 0 10 MSY 74 87 76 90 / 40 60 0 20 GPT 72 86 74 88 / 40 40 10 10 PQL 71 88 72 90 / 40 40 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LN LONG TERM....LN AVIATION...MSW MARINE...LN