Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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631 FXUS64 KLIX 222321 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 621 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Ridging continues to dominate the area for the most part with dry conditions expect. The only exception to this will be tonight in the northwestern part of the forecast area due some weakening of the ridge possible because of a weak developing shortwave pushing through OK into AR then west MS/north LA bringing a potential threat of showers/storms. There is already convection ongoing in southeast OK so expect it to move east/southeast later tonight but confidence of it actually reaching our area isn`t as high in terms of it reaching the SW MS counties of the CWA since the environmental support is not great over our area with plenty of capping. Any chances of showers/storms should be over by the time we get into late hours tonight. Other than this, dry and quiet conditions are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The area will still under the influence of a slow building ridge through the weekend and Memorial Day, with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s through Monday. When including the humidity, we could see heat index values at the peak of the day on the long weekend in the upper 90s/low 100s. Most areas will be anomalous warm with a few spots threatening the records, particularly New Orleans. Here are a few reminders for heat safety this weekend: -Take frequent breaks inside with A/C or in shade if the former is not available -stay hydrated, drink plenty of fluids -dress with light colored and loose clothing -don`t leave children or pets in the car -avoid activities especially in the heat of mid day -know the signs of heat illness Starting Tuesday, we have a nearby front that will approach from the north, so building clouds off of that on top of some low rain chances (20-30%ish) that will help dampen the heat slightly and bring our next chances of rain. We`ll be in a more zonal flow pattern for the first part of the week. -BL && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions through the cycle outside of some potential fog for MCB overnight. This should lift shortly after sunrise on Thursday. Otherwise, light southerly winds can be expected. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Fairly benign weather continues for the coastal waters. Winds and waves will remain fairly light onshore flow with the exception of parts of Sunday and Monday may see some winds at around 15 to 20 knots so small craft exercise caution headline may be needed then. After this, the winds will become light again for the rest of next week. -BL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 74 93 75 94 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 71 90 73 93 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 74 90 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 71 87 74 88 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 69 88 72 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BL LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...RDF MARINE...BL