Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 170213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
913 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.EVENING UPDATE...A weak convergence boundary has sparked off some
isolated convection over the open Gulf waters east of the
Mississippi River this evening. This weak boundary will continue
to drift to the south and eventually dissipate late tonight into
early tomorrow morning, and any ongoing convection should also end
as this boundary dissolves. Have increased POP slightly to around
20 to 30 percent over the eastern marine zones to account for this
isolated convection. Otherwise, there are no changes to the
ongoing forecast this evening as the forecast remains largely on
track with observed conditions. PG


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/

AVIATION (00Z TAF DISCUSSION)...VFR conditions will remain in
place at all of the terminals through tomorrow evening. These VFR
conditions are the result of a very dry and very stable airmass
remaining in place through the forecast period. PG

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday)...

Drier air advecting southward into the area today will allow for
quiet weather conditions to continue through tomorrow, ahead of the
potential tropical event this weekend.

Late Friday is when conditions will start to deteriorate as a surge
of tropical moisture is expected to enter the area. Rainfall amounts
will see a drastic jump with PWs exceeding 3" on model soundings. We
are still outlooked for a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from
Friday morning to Saturday morning. There are 6 to 10 inches of
rainfall forecast but these rainfall totals could be doubled in
localized areas. This means that flash flooding could potentially
become an issue for low lying areas. Given the substantial
instability and increased tropical moisture expected Friday night,
isolated tornadoes may also be possible throughout the night and
into Saturday as bands of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms move
through the area. Winds are also expected to become elevated during
these strong storms on Friday as well as Saturday. /TDB/

LONG TERM (Saturday and beyond)...
The main concern in the long term forecast continues to be the local
impacts  from the tropical system mainly Saturday through early
Monday. Latest update from the National Hurricane Center has the
chance of development at 70% over the next 48 hours and a 90% chance
of development over the next 5 days. Conditions are expected to
continue to worsen as multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms
move through the area. Tides are also expected to increase to higher
than normal levels late Friday night into Saturday. This may cause a
threat for coastal flooding mainly across coastal LA/MS areas.

Although confidence in formation continues to increase day to day,
it is still too far out to know specific numbers and locations as it
relates to our local impact. We will continue to monitor National
Hurricane Center for latest forecast updates. In the meantime
everyone should be working to be sure they are prepared and know
their safety plan. /TDB/

VFR conditions continue to prevail through the forecast period.

High pressure over the area will cause winds to stay near 10 to 15
knot range through early Friday. By Friday afternoon/evening, winds
and wave heights will start to see their increase as broad low
pressure gradually moves northward in the Gulf bring a potential
excess of heavy rainfall associated with a tropical cyclone to the
coastal area lasting through the weekend. It is still to soon to
know specific details of impacts from this system may bring, but
will continue monitoring updated forecasts from NHC. With winds up
to 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts and seas more than 8-9 ft
expected over the weekend, there be a need for some headlines.
However, forecasters will make that decision when we are closer to
the onsite of the event and confidence continues to improve. /TDB/


MCB  66  91  68  88 /  10   0   0  40
BTR  69  92  72  87 /  10   0   0  60
ASD  69  93  73  86 /  10   0  10  70
MSY  76  93  78  87 /  10   0  10  80
GPT  70  91  75  85 /  10   0  10  70
PQL  68  91  73  85 /  10   0  20  70



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