Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 282058
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
358 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Thursday...
Scattered sub-severe showers and storms have been forming and
moving through the area. These storms have been pretty
progressive, but have been putting out higher rainfall rates. If
any of them slow down over the evening hours, it will be a big
concern for localized flash flooding. Additionally, thanks to
decent instability and good moisture abundance, 30-40mph winds
and frequent lightning will be possible with these storms as well.
These storms have been producing decent outflow boundaries, so any
outflow boundaries that merge or collide could have stronger winds
and higher rainfall rates as well.

The lingering boundary over the area will persist over the next
few days, enhancing rain chances for the area. Looking at the
models, southerly surface winds will help enhance warm air
advection and moisture advection into the region. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected over the area over the
next few days, mainly during the afternoon hours along the
lingering boundary. Instability (CAPE>1500J/kg) and moisture
content in the atmosphere is plenty. PW values are forecast to be
around 2-2.2 inches, which is above the 75th percentile for the
SPC sounding climatology. As a result, any storms that form will
have the potential for higher rainfall rates and efficient
rainfall. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern in some
locations, especially during the afternoon and evening hours the
next few days. Additionally, some gusty winds (30-60mph) and
frequent lightning will be possible as well along the lingering
boundary over the area over the next few days. On the plus side,
these showers will keep high temperatures near average for this
time of year. MSW

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Sunday...
Friday through the weekend, an upper level ridge will try to build
back over the area, according to the model consensus. Southerly
surface winds will help to enhance warm air advection and moisture
advection into the area. Weak upper level divergence will help to
enhance some lifting in the environment, especially during the
afternoon hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are
forecast daily over the weekend, based on the models, particularly
in the afternoon hours. Instability (CAPE >1500 J/kg) and
moisture access will be plenty (PW values around 2-2.2 inches).
PW values indicate that any showers that form will have the
potential for more efficient rainfall and higher rainfall rates.
Localized flash flooding could be an issue in some locations.
Gusty sub-severe (30-60mph) winds and frequent lightning will also
be a concern. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Package...
VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Vicinity showers will
be likely at all area airports late this afternoon and early
evening. TEMPO groups with MVFR conditions are forecast for some
area airports (KMSY, KHDC, KHUM, KASD) due to showers and
thunderstorms this evening. VFR conditions will return at all area
airports by the late evening hours tonight and will persist
through the forecast period. Gusty winds and wind shifts greater
than 30 degrees will be possible throughout the forecast period.
MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Wednesday morning, winds will be moderate (<15
knots) and easterly. Wednesday through Tuesday, winds will be
moderate (<15 knots) and southerly to southeasterly. Wave heights
will correspond to the wind speeds. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  71  88 /  30  70  30  70
BTR  73  91  74  89 /  40  80  30  70
ASD  73  90  74  89 /  50  80  50  80
MSY  78  89  77  88 /  50  70  40  80
GPT  75  88  76  89 /  50  70  50  80
PQL  75  88  74  86 /  60  80  60  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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