893
FXUS64 KLIX 202001
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Axis of last night`s upper trough extended from Lake Erie to near
Atlanta at midday, with ridging over the Plains States. There was
a shortwave rounding the base of the trough along Interstate 20
this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure was centered over
Texas with dry air across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
Northwest winds continued to pump dry air into the area with
temperatures pretty uniformly in the middle 60s at 3 PM CDT,
compared to the upper 70s to mid 80s at this time yesterday. Dew
points haven`t gotten quite as low as expected, mainly upper 20s
and lower 30s, but were in the teens and lower 20s just to our
west and northwest. With current relative humidities in the 25 to
30 percent range across the area, they could still fall to near 20
percent by the end of the afternoon. With wind gusts still in the
20 to 30 mph range, or a little higher, will allow the Red Flag
Warning to run it`s course and expire at 7 PM CDT.

The center of the high pressure will translate eastward over the
next 36 hours and be centered over the eastern Gulf by Saturday
morning. Don`t expect any cloud cover to speak of through Friday
night, with the short term forecast essentially focused on
temperatures, humidity and winds.

Relative humidity values tomorrow won`t be greatly different from
today, with minima in the 20 to 30 percent range. The difference
tomorrow will be considerably less wind, remaining in the 10 to 15
mph range at worst. Have no plans for an additional Red Flag
Warning.

If there`s a forecast concern tonight, it would be with
overnight lows. There will be excellent radiating conditions
across the area, especially after midnight, with winds becoming
calm across much of the area. Overnight lows are expected to fall
into the 30s over significant portions of the area, and used a
blend of NBM25 and CONSMOS for lows. Looking at forecast
probabilities, they give roughly a 10 percent chance for lows of
32 or below across southwest Mississippi and some of the drainage
areas in the Pearl and Pascagoula River basins. Will not go with
any freeze products, but there will be mention of frost in some
counties/parishes from the Interstate 12 corridor northward in
Louisiana, and many of our Mississippi counties.

With the high sliding east of the area during the day tomorrow,
winds will become southerly, with moderating temperatures. Highs
will likely run about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow than today, and
overnight lows tomorrow night/Saturday morning 10-15 degrees
warmer than tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Just one system of any import in the long term. A northern stream
trough will push a cold front through the area late Sunday night
or Monday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF
operational is a bit quicker than the GFS operational on the 12z
runs with frontal passage and precipitation. Precipitable water
values do get into the 1.3-1.5 inch range, with sufficient
instability for storms. Won`t discount the potential for strong
storms late Sunday night or Monday entirely, but at least for now,
the threat appears to be nowhere near as strong as the last couple
outlooked events. May be some minor cooling for midweek next week,
but not to the extent of the current cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Gusty winds will
subside at most terminals by sunset, and prior to midnight at
KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Current plan is to replace the Small Craft Advisory with Small
Craft Exercise Caution headlines at current 00z expiration time.
Will run those headlines until 06z as high pressure shifts
eastward across the waters. May need Caution headlines late in the
weekend, but at this time, no indications that advisories will be
necessary beyond the next few hours through the end of the marine
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  68  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  70  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  36  68  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  45  69  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  37  63  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  66  45  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-065-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW