Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 210447
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1147 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018


.AVIATION...
Influx of tropical moisture from the east is likely to bring an
early onset to convection by daybreak at KGPT. Ongoing convection
near Dauphin Island times arrival near KGPT at 11Z. Depending on
outflow behaviors, this will likely provide a chain-reaction
development pattern down range into KNEW, KASD, KMSY later in the
morning, generally between 15Z-18Z. Relatively drier air farther
west may allow for lesser convective coverage at KBTR but still
worthy of PROB30 mention in the afternoon hours. Air mass
characteristics will favor waterspout and tropical funnel
formations mainly in the morning hours over coastal marine areas,
but could carry over into the afternoon hours near the tidal
lakes. Any PIREPS of such sightings would be most appreciated.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of convective
areas. Convective gust potential on microbursts 40 to 45 kt,
namely vicinity of KGPT/KPQL/KHSA, and 30-40kt KNEW/KASD/KMSY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  68  88 /   0  70  30  50
BTR  70  89  70  89 /   0  40  30  50
ASD  69  88  69  88 /   0  80  30  50
MSY  74  89  73  89 /   0  50  20  50
GPT  71  87  71  87 /  10  50  30  50
PQL  68  87  69  87 /   0  60  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

24/RR



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