Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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981
FXUS64 KLIX 162124
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
424 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...

The combination of a deep layer ridge over the Atlantic through
the southern U.S Atlantic coast to the Gulf of Mexico, and
weak, trailing shortwave troughs from stronger systems moving
from the upper/mid Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, will interact with copious
deep moisture (precipitable water values of 2 to 2.25 inches) to
produce high chances of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. This deeper moisture will make a surge inland through
east central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi the remainder of
this afternoon, an the interface of the moisture flushing out the
mid level dry air may be favorable for some strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms producing wind gusts over 40 mph before the
storms weaken after sunset. Convective temperatures will likely
remain low, so many areas will likely see showers and
thunderstorms before Noon again tomorrow and over the weekend.
Deeper moisture layers should extend up into the mid to upper
levels during the same period, so more typical, summertime
convective wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will likely be the
peak, however a favorable pattern for a few waterspouts will be in
place.

.LONG TERM...

A series of potent shortwave troughs will likely carve out a
deeper mid/upper trough over the eastern states with an axis down
to the Gulf coast during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
This pattern is expected to send a weak cold front down into the
deep South, possibly entering northern portions of the forecast
area. Regardless of the exact timing and placement of the surface
boundary, there is likely to be deeper moisture and high rain
chances remaining in place early in the week with some drier air
justifying lowering rain chances a bit from the north by Wednesday
or next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms Will continue to develop
inland through the late afternoon hours with brief impacts
possible at KBTR, KHDC and KMCB. Otherwise, expect mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Expect more scattered to at
times numerous TSRA to develop Friday as well.

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain centered east of the waters through early
next week. As a result, prevailing south to southwest winds of 5
to 10 knots are expected across most of the coastal waters
through the period, however periodic stronger winds up in the 11
to 13 knots range are possible with much higher gusts possible
in and near thunderstorms will be a bit more prevalent than
normal. Seas will range from 1 to 2 feet through the entire period
across all of the waters, except for higher waves near and in
stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  91 /  30  50  20  70
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  50  20  60
ASD  75  91  75  91 /  20  50  20  60
MSY  77  90  77  90 /  20  50  20  60
GPT  77  89  76  90 /  30  50  30  60
PQL  75  90  75  90 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

22/TD



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