402
FXUS64 KLIX 160838
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

An upper level high will reside over the central Gulf through the
short term period. This will continue to promote an above average
temperature regime across the region. At the surface, high
pressure will be in control centered over the eastern Gulf
allowing for a more moderate low level flow across the region.
This flow will continue to pump ample low level moisture across
the region. However, with plenty of dry air just off the deck with
an a strong EML observed from the recent 00z LIX sounding, a dry
forecast should prevail. During the overnight, low stratus will
continue to develop under the strong H85 inversion layer. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A mostly zonal flow transitioning into a more active southwesterly
flow is expected through the second half of the weekend and into
the start of the new workweek. This will continue to promote
generally an above average temperature pattern with a 593dam H5
ridge remaining locked over the Gulf. A broader scale trough will
move eastward through the plains and eventually into the Cornbelt
southward to the Ozarks. This will send a front and parent upper
level shortwave through our region midweek. Globals are in
relatively good agreement in terms of timing and strength of the
system and this will be our next chance of rainfall across the
region with the best QPF signal residing along and north of the
I10/12 corridor. Behind the front, CAA develops and temperatures
drop from the 80s/90s respectively to the lower to mid 80s with
overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s across the cooler
interior locations to round out the long term period. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Cooling overnight temperatures and associated temperature
inversion are bringing a low stratus deck into the area. Beginning
about 06Z, ceilings will be in the MVFR range from 1000 to 2000
feet. These conditions will last through 14 to 15Z before the
clouds begin to lift out and conditions improve to VFR. There is
also a likelihood of light fog at MCB and HUM, but visibilities
will remain greater than 4SM so impacts are expected to be
negligible. /Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Cautionary headlines are ongoing for the western waters south of
Terrebonne Bay. Winds going into the weekend will slightly weaken
as pressure gradient relaxes just a skosh. That said, moderate
southerly flow will continue through the weekend and into early
next week with moderate seas also continuing. A cold front will
approach the region by midweek, which should transition winds to a
more northwesterly direction.  (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  72  91  71 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  92  75  93  74 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  90  73  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  90  76  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  74  86  73 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  87  72  88  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RDF