375
FXUS64 KLIX 262035
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
335 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The area remains between an upper level high centered just east of
the forecast area and an upper level height low or weakness over
the Midsouth with the H5 trough extending from Mexico to the
northeastern U.S. This continues to place our region well within
the active southwesterly flow aloft and today it has been ACTIVE.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed and several
locations have gotten a few rounds of convection. PWATs are around
2.20" verified by the 12z LIX sounding. Steering is mostly light
with forward propagation mostly driving the movement and in some
cases across the far western areas of the CWFA, pivoting storms
and backbuilding has occurred leading to a hydro threat.
Thankfully, at this juncture it would appear most of the heaviest
rainfall has been over more rural areas that can take a bit more
heavier rainfall than the urbanized city.

Convection will begin to decrease over the next few hours as a
weak H5 impulse moves northeast away from the region along with
loss of diurnal influences. That said, be mindful that given the
rather weak low level flow and plenty of surface boundaries
floating around from convection today, the nearshore waters and
tidal lakes if any Saturday morning convection develops it may
have a waterspout potential.

Speaking of Saturday, very similar to today. Temperatures held
down due to the cloudiness and rainfall. Convection possible,
especially the western third of the CWA closer to another weak H5
impulse over the LCH forecast area (but still close enough and
times well with the diurnal cycle to spark off numerous showers
and storms). And of course, hydro concerns will continue to reside
across the region, especially urbanized/poor drainage areas. Also,
with the widest and more robust updrafts, a strong wind gust or
two will be possible, but this should mostly remain below severe
limits. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

As been advertised, after over a week of the same pattern aloft,
Sunday will be the transition day. The upper high just east of our
region will begin to spread west across our CWFA and try to merge
with the upper high over the four corners region. This will fill
the weakness aloft and finally allow the large scale trough to
move north and east cutting off the active southwesterly flow.
Diurnally driven showers and storms will remain possible with the
higher rain chances and coverage on Sunday, however, going into
the start of the new workweek, the upper level subsidence will
begin to limit the coverage. This pattern takes shape and should
remain through Thursday night and Friday. With the lower rain
chances, temperatures will fire back up especially with the higher
heights/thicknesses. Also, with the surface high mostly east, low
level flow will remain southerly, which should limit mixing of
low level dewpoints...meaning the heat and humidity together may
require more heat headlines next week, unfortunately. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Convection is ongoing across local terminals this afternoon and
will remain possible through sunset or so with a downward trend in
coverage expected over time. Covered the scattered coverage with
TEMPOs. Expect reduced VIS and ceilings in and around convection.
Otherwise, guidance do show MVFR (or lower) VIS/CIGs overnight and
early Saturday for most terminals. Didn`t go as low as IFR for
now, but subsequent updates may require further reduced VIS/CIGs
if confidence grows. Otherwise, light and variable winds expected
outside of convection. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Favorable marine conditions will largely persist through the
upcoming forecast period. Diurnally driven (mostly) convection
will still be possible overnight and during the morning hours.
Slightly higher winds and seas are likely in and around
convection. Otherwise, generally southerly flow expected for the
offshore waters and nearshore will be rather variable depending on
the diurnal surface boundaries (e.g. sea breeze or outflow
boundary). Coverage of showers and storms will begin to decrease
as we go later into the new workweek next week. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  88  72  89 /  60  90  20  70
BTR  75  91  76  92 /  40  80  20  80
ASD  74  91  76  91 /  70  90  20  80
MSY  77  90  78  90 /  60  80  20  80
GPT  76  89  77  90 /  50  80  20  70
PQL  75  92  76  94 /  40  70  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF