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000
FXUS64 KLIX 262029
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
329 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...Little change in the weather pattern is expected
through Tuesday as a deep layer ridge axis remains centered over
the Gulf South. Ample subsidence throughout the atmospheric column
will keep temperatures warmer than average and also keep rain
chances minimal. Daytime highs should generally remain in the
lower 90s and overnight lows should cool into the upper 60s and
lower 70s each night.

.LONG TERM...The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on
Wednesday, but ample subsidence and a dry airmass in the mid-
levels will persist. As a result, above average daytime
temperatures in the lower 90s and suppressed rain chances will
persist through the day on Wednesday.

The ridge will further weaken over the area by Thursday as a weak
shortwave trough axis and frontal boundary approaches from the
northwest. This trough and the associated front will pass north of
the forecast areas, but enough mid-level moisture should feed into
the region to allow for scattered diurnally forced convection to
develop. Have included chance POP of 30 to 40 percent in the
forecast for Thursday afternoon to reflect the convective risk.
Convection should initiate along weak mesoscale boundaries like
the seabreeze front. Although the risk of severe thunderstorms is
very low, a few stronger thunderstorms could develop and produce
locally strong wind gusts at times. Temperatures will be closer to
normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 due to the
increase in moisture, cloud development, and scattered convection.
The convection should dissipate rapidly after sunset as
instability values decrease and temperatures cool into the 70s.

A largely zonal flow pattern will take hold on Friday and remain
in place through the upcoming weekend. A series of weak shortwave
disturbances will slide through the forecast area on the back of
zonal flow. These upper level features will be on the weaker side,
but the combination of weak upper level omega and ample
instability in the late morning and afternoon hours will support
the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
Thunderstorm initiation should generally be along weak mesoscale
boundaries like the seabreeze front or pre-existing outflow
boundaries. These thunderstorms should generally remain on the
weaker side, but a few storms could turn strong and produce higher
wind gusts and heavier downpours. Daytime highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s are expected
each day. Overall, a very typical Summer pattern is expected to
take hold through the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...The rest of the afternoon and through 05z Monday will remain VFR.
Again overnight, primarily in the 10-14z Sunday, very brief flight
restrictions will again be possible. These restrictions will
generally be in the MVFR range due to occasional ceilings FL010-020
and/or 3-5sm in fog/mist at KASD, KHDC, KMCB and KHUM. Can`t rule
out IFR, particularly at KASD, KMCB and KHUM. Any restrictions
should improve to VFR around 14z Monday. 18

&&

.MARINE...Upper ridging and surface high over the southeastern US will
maintain a southeast flow over the region and coastal waters through
the forecast period. wind speeds should remain below 15 knots
through the forecast period, and do not anticipate any lengthy
periods of Exercise Caution conditions. Southerly winds west of the
Mississippi River will become established with wind speeds of 10 to
15 knots Tuesday and Wednesday with seas building up to 4 feet at
times. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River Flood Warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue =  Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
        visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory
         issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =   Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive
        rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  70  92  71  92 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  71  92  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  74  91  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  88  73  88 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  70  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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