Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 182311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
611 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.AVIATION (Updated for 00Z TAF issuance)...
No significant weather is expected to affect terminals over the
next few days. VFR conditions will continue through the remainder
of the TAF cycle. /TDB/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...

The frontal boundary is offshore in the northeast to central Gulf
of Mexico, however there continues to be some west-southwest
flow aloft with mid to upper level moisture streaming through the
forecast area with partly to mostly cloudy skies. At least all
rain on radar has not been reaching the ground with all the dry
air in the lower levels. Rainfall reaching the water mostly well
offshore to the southeast will also gradually move out as drier
air moves in overnight tonight, then all land and water areas
should remain free of any rainfall on Monday as surface high
pressure builds more strongly into the forecast area.

A shortwave trough is expected to move from Texas to the central
Gulf coast region Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the
frontal boundary still well offshore in the Gulf, any low rain
chances should be very low and mostly confined to the coastal
waters late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Temperatures are
expected to continue to be cool for mid to late April tonight and
Monday, but then warming closer to seasonal averages on Tuesday. A
shortwave trough will be pushing east from the mid to lower
Mississippi Valley across the eastern states Tuesday night and
Wednesday with surface high pressure and a reinforcement of cooler
and drier air rebuilding over the lower Mississippi Valley and
southeast states Wednesday. The airmass is expected to be rather
cool with temperatures well below normal, especially Wednesday night
when lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s in northern
areas. The MOS guidance remains even colder than the NBM with
upper 30s persisting in the guidance, so will see how the guidance
trends over the next day or two.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...

Expect a continuation of the much needed dry weather and pleasant
daytime temperatures with low humidity on Thursday into early
Friday. Another transition from dry to more humid and wetter will
occur again through the day on Friday. This will be due to a
potent but fast moving shortwave trough that will be moving out
of the southwest U.S. into the southern Plains region ether
Friday afternoon or Friday night with lower confidence due to
model spread. The shortwave is then expected to pass through the
lower Mississippi Valley region Saturday or Sunday. The faster
ECMWF solution with the Saturday shortwave passage seems most
consistent so the forecast is biased towards that solution. This
means wet weather returning Friday night into Saturday, but then a
dry and nice day on Sunday. Will continue to monitor this system
and fine tune the forecast and any impactful weather as it draws


VFR conditions will prevail through Monday with only a few to
scattered low level clouds at or above 3000 feet the remainder of
this afternoon and some mid to high clouds that should clear out
overnight tonight and move back into the region Monday night.


After a lull in stronger winds this afternoon across the marine
area, winds will pick up again to 15 to 20 knots over most waters by
late evening as high pressure with cool air builds into the north
Gulf. By midday on Monday, a lighter wind regime moves in for about
24 hours as high pressure moves along the northern Gulf coast.
Another reinforcement of cool, dry air will increase winds again
late Tuesday night and Wednesday into Thursday, and winds may exceed
Small Craft Advisory criteria.


MCB  46  72  51  76 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  48  73  53  77 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  51  74  52  78 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  58  73  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  52  73  55  76 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  50  74  54  76 /  10   0  10  10



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