Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 200811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
311 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Rain chances will be on the upswing this week with today likely
being the driest of the next several days. Ridging aloft across
the Gulf South will gradually weaken during the period while a
weak mid level trough/low over the eastern Gulf translates
northward to the northeast Gulf Coast and the southeast conus
early in the period. As this all happens, moisture is forecast to
increase and deepen across the region. As a result, convection is
expected to be more widespread than what has been observed over
the last several days. Toward the end of the week and into next
weekend there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with
the eventual evolution of energy forecast to move into the Gulf
from the western Caribbean and the tropical moisture that will be
associated with it. Forecast model solutions currently disagree
on the development and movement of this energy in the Gulf. It`s
possible convection will be more extensive by next weekend than
currently indicated in the forecast and that the POPs will need to
be increased. 11


First concern is some weak convection that could move
across MCB from now through 11z. This is weakening so there is a
good chance that there will be only minor impacts from this
activity. After that some tempo MVFR to IFR vsbys and CIGS are
possible this morning mainly around BTR and MCB. after 14z all
terminals should be back in VFR status. Next concern will be
afternoon convection mainly along and north of the 10/12 corridor.
Any impacts from convection should be short lived. /CAB/


Still looks like for the most part onshore flow will
persist through much of the coming week. That said there could be
some minor diurnal fluctuations in the wind closer to the coasts.
Winds will generally remain below 12 kts though the week but could
be a touch higher by the end of the week east of the MS delta.
Waves/Seas should range mostly in the 1-3 ft range. /CAB/



DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rain, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.


MCB  91  68  89  68 /  30  20  50  20
BTR  91  69  90  69 /  30  20  50  20
ASD  90  68  89  68 /  30  20  50  20
MSY  91  73  89  73 /  30  20  40  20
GPT  89  70  88  70 /  30  20  50  20
PQL  89  67  88  68 /  30  20  50  20



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