527
FXUS64 KLIX 221123
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
623 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

The fight between a series of fast moving vorticity maxima
sliding along the I-20 and I-40 corridors and a strong 591
H5 ridge axis extending into the Gulf South from Mexico will be
the main forecast challenge through Friday night. Although the
fast moving and weak vorticity maxima will help to weaken the
ridge slightly, the amount of dry air and subsidence in place will
keep a great deal of convective inhibition in place across nearly
all of the forecast area through the period. However, there is
the risk that convection over north Louisiana could turn cold pool
dominated and a some weakening showers and thunderstorms could
impact northwest portions of the forecast area this evening. The
overall threat will be very limited with any convective impacts
expected to completely dissipated by midnight. Have included a 20
PoP in the far northwest between 00z and 06z to account for this
convective risk. Otherwise, a completely dry forecast is in place
through the entire forecast period as the ridge axis remains in
the more dominant feature over the CWA. The main impact from this
strong ridging will be continued warm temperatures in the upper
80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Lows will dip into the upper 60s
and lower 70s each night. As temperatures cool each night,
boundary layer conditions will support the development of a
scattered to broken low stratus deck each night shortly before
daybreak, especially over more inland areas. Overall, the
continuation of a very benign weather regime is expected through
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Starting off Memorial Day Weekend on Saturday continued hot and
dry. No adjustments were made to deterministic suggested NBM values
for highs and lows as all will be meteorologically feasible given
anomalously strong 591dm ridging settled over MX into the Gulf.
Deterministic values fell right at or slightly above the 75th
percentile, keeping area highs into the low to mid 90`s. Taking a
quick peak at Climate, Baton Rouge daily records Saturday thru
Monday likely will not be in jeopardy (but could be close by a few
degrees), with daily record highs each day at 98 set in 1921/1922.
MSY may be a different story with records potentially in jeopardy
per recent forecast temperatures (records vary in the low/mid 90`s)
and GPT, not likely seeing record highs as records range around
97/98 each day Saturday thru Monday set in 1953. Hopefully this ages
well but again, a few record highs can`t be ruled out, especially
for MSY.

Regardless of actual highs, increasing low/mid 70 Td return flow
will yield increasing heat indicies. Max heat indicies in the 100`s
can be expected pretty much areawide Saturday and Sunday, with
Monday looking like the warmest day as some areas tap close to 105-
106. Messaging remains focused on those spending time outdoors for
extended periods to take precautions against the heat. While not
excessive, can be strenuous and don`t want people to be caught off
guard especially since these temperatures coming up are the hottest
seen since last year`s record stretch.

Next focus was on rain chances Monday, as we`ve been advertising the
chance for an isolated shower or two. Did back down PoPs ever so
slightly given antecedent environmental dry tropospheric airmass in
place, yielding a strong subsidence inversion aloft. Regardless of
ample surface warming/mixing, should struggle to attain distinct
shower chances especially given lack of large-scale dynamic lift
(situated to our north). Beyond however going into Tuesday, rain
chances will likely bump up more as a front approaches the area,
providing more lift and eroding the in place inversion to support
scattered showers. Thankfully, this will likely back the heat down
some underneath mostly cloudy skies. Will keep an eye on it. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all of the terminals
through tomorrow morning as a broad area of high pressure remains
centered over the region. There will be a scattered cumulus field
that forms with cloud bases of 2000 to 3000 feet after 15z as
temperatures warm, but this cumulus field will have little to no
impact at aviation operations today.  PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Currently VFR across all terminals. Quite a bit of cirrus cloud
cover moving toward the area from convection to the west, but this
shouldn`t have any significant impacts. Still at least a low end
potential for fog around sunrise, with KMCB and KHUM the main
prospects, but the cirrus may preclude that. If fog does occur,
it should burn off quickly by 14z. Could also be a very brief
period of MVFR ceilings (FL025) in a few locations as cumulus
field develops tomorrow morning, but should lift above FL030
pretty quickly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Little change in the overall pattern is expected through the
upcoming holiday weekend with south-southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots expected to continue through Saturday. Seas of 1 to 3 feet
will accompany these winds. A bit of an increase in gradient flow
to 15 to 20 knots is expected on Sunday as a stronger low pressure
passes to the north of the area. Seas will respond to these
stronger winds and increase to up to 5 feet in the offshore
waters. By Monday, winds will relax back to 10 to 15 knots as high
pressure becomes more dominant once again. Outside of Sunday, no
significant concerns to the boating community are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  68  90  70 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  89  72  91  74 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  87  71  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  87  74  89  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  73  86  75 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  85  70  86  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG