Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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062 FXUS64 KLUB 051126 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 626 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Triple digit heat goes on hiatus today following last evening`s modest cold front. Surface high pressure currently in southern Nebraska is forecast to slide into eastern Oklahoma by this evening while keeping moist upslope winds across our forecast area. Despite this improved low-level moisture, hefty inhibition aloft and cooler highs today will keep surface parcels capped. Northwest flow aloft with some passing mid and high clouds dries out tonight as H5 height rises jump 60 meters in 24 hours ahead of an upper high settling over New Mexico after midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Upper ridging will move more squarely overhead Thursday bringing a return of triple digit heat to most of the region which will last through the first half of the weekend. Thursday will also feature a return of thunderstorm chances as a slow-moving front drifts southward through the Texas Panhandle. Guidance is in fairly good agreement depicting scattered storm development over the southern TX Panhandle Thursday afternoon as the front intersects a modest midlevel theta-e ridge. Given the hot surface temperatures, minimal capping and enough instability will likely be present for these storms to persist through sunset as they drift southward within the weak northerly flow aloft. Have therefore boosted PoPs above NBM Thursday afternoon and evening more in line with hi- res consensus. A bit more inhibition will be present on Friday as the center of the upper ridge axis translates eastward, but a shortwave disturbance atop the ridge may bring a few storms to the southern TX Panhandle once again Friday evening, with a repeat performance of scattered evening storms possible again on Saturday as the ridge begins to flatten. Sunday into early next week, the ridge will retreat even further south as deep cyclonic flow aloft overspreads much of the eastern CONUS. This evolution will result in a better-defined and more prolonged period of northwest flow aloft locally, which favors higher storm chances each evening from Sunday through Tuesday as upstream convection over the NM/CO high terrain translates southeastward over our area. Temperatures will also return to values near or just below average Sunday through the middle of next week as layer thicknesses decrease considerably with the deamplification of the upper ridge. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Continued VFR with mostly light NE winds this morning veering E this afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...93