Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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985 FXUS64 KLUB 051927 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 227 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Upper air analysis this afternoon depicts an amplifying Rex Block over the western U.S. interior and southward into the northeastern waters of the Pacific Ocean where a barotropic low exists offshore Baja California. The more-progressive flow is displaced to the east of the CWA as a basal trough exits eastern Texas, where large-scale subsidence continues to advect overhead in the mid-levels along the eastern periphery of the mid/upper-level ridge to the west. At the surface, a weak anticyclone was located in northwestern Oklahoma, which has resulted in east-southeasterly flow area-wide this afternoon with temperatures currently in the middle 80s. Upslope flow associated with the east-southeasterly winds, in addition to a mild subsidence layer associated with a weak trough at 700 mb, will continue to keep temperatures at bay with the previous forecasts of the middle 90s remaining intact. Mid/upper-level ridging will slowly meander eastward throughout the overnight hours with return flow becoming established as the surface anticyclone rotates eastward as well, and morning lows will hover in the middle-upper 60s beneath a few low clouds before the low-level jet veers towards sunrise. A southward-moving cold front spawned from a negatively-tilted trough digging into Ontario is forecast to slow in forward-speed as it moves through the western High Plains and into the increasingly barotropic airmass over the CWA. Intense dry-bulbing will occur with temperatures rising to or breaching 100 degrees across most of the CWA, with boundary-layer heights ascending into the mid-levels. As the cold front becomes quasi-stationary in the vicinity of the extreme southern TX PH, at least widely-scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid-afternoon as low-level convergence from the slightly backed flow to the south of the from maximizes amongst no MLCINH. Organized thunderstorms are not expected due to small shear vectors; however, tall, skinny CAPE profiles yielding near 1,000 J/kg for most-unstable parcels (which is the favored trajectory given the intense heating galvanizing Inverted-V profiles within the boundary-layer amidst no MLCINH), will result in the development of multi-cellular clusters near 21-22Z. High LCLs and water-loading will lead to the potential for a few severe-caliber wind gusts beneath the deepest cores, in addition to locally heavy rainfall as PWATs exceed 1.00" along the stalled front. Outflow may temporarily shift the position of the front, but it is expected to remain stalled near the northern zones heading into tomorrow night. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Very warm temperatures will continue through at least the early part of the weekend with an upper level ridge shifting eastward overhead. Temperatures will still be on the order of 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The presence of the upper ridge will mostly suppress convection but some chances exist for the area from Saturday onward. As the center of the upper ridge slowly approaches the area, monsoonal-like moisture will stream northward out of northern Mexico into eastern New Mexico. This would likely be the source of precipitation as these storms drift eastward. Although atmospheric mixing will be very deep on Friday and Saturday, we will be capped in the mixed layer likely keeping convective chances confined to the evening hours. A number of short wave troughs will move over top of the ridge on Friday and Saturday but convection looks to stay to the north of the area reaching as far south as the Texas Panhandle. The weather pattern will change a bit late in the weekend through early next week. The upper level ridge will briefly amplify and move back west allowing mid and upper level winds to veer more to the northwest. At the same time, an upper level low will be moving onshore from Baja California into the southwestern US. Several additional short waves may move southeastward through the ridge generating northwest flow storms Sunday and Monday evenings. The aforementioned low moving onshore is expected to phase in with the larger scale flow as the ridge moves east in response to a deep trough moving across the Canadian prairies. An additional evening of northwest flow storms will be possible on Tuesday. Northwest flow storms will likely be enhanced by a cold front moving through on Sunday leading to upslope flow into the higher terrain of New Mexico. Furthermore, the front will lower temperatures back closer to seasonal averages or even lower than averages early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR next 24 hours with easterly winds veering southward this evening into tonight. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...09