Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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637 FXUS64 KLUB 020850 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Shortwave upper level ridging has largely shifted east of our region early this morning with flow aloft progged to strengthen modestly throughout the day. Continued southeasterly surface flow overnight has reinforced a rich plume of low level moisture with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s at 3 AM. This initial southeasterly flow will gradually veer more southerly by mid morning and south-southwesterly near the TX/NM state line as a surface trough deepens over eastern NM. In contrast to the past few days, this evolution will sharpen a dryline over the western South Plains and SW TX Panhandle by early afternoon. Guidance has remained consistent in only mixing this dryline about as far east as Hwy-385 by mid-afternoon, and this seems reasonable given the impressive moisture in place to its east and only a weak westerly component to the flow over eastern NM. By mid to late afternoon, convective temperatures should be easily reached along and west of I-27 as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as capping erodes almost completely. Confidence in how widespread this initial storm activity becomes through the rest of the afternoon is still uncertain given an initial lack of large scale forcing. That being said, most guidance does indicate an expansion in coverage of thunderstorms during the evening along and east of I-27 as cold pools consolidate and activity likely becomes more multi-cellular. The potential for more widespread severe weather also appears slightly better today compared to yesterday, with consensus pointing to MLCAPEs in excess of 3500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid afternoon and bulk shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt. Initial activity near and west of I-27 should pose more of a wind and large hail threat, with straight hodographs favoring a potential for splitting supercells. The severe threat should then transition more towards damaging wind as the evening goes on, although it should be noted that the tornado potential will also increase within any remaining discrete convection later in the evening across the Rolling Plains as a SSE low level jet intensifies. Finally, given the heavy rainfall over the past several days, a localized flash flooding threat may also develop with possible very high rain rates given PWATs of 1" to 1.25". Storms will exit to our east overnight with another mild and humid night in store area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Monday will feature mostly dry and hot conditions across the forecast area with zonal flow aloft. Lee troughing will develop over West Texas with a surface low over the Texas Panhandle. The dryline will mix east through the morning hours with varying solutions from models on the exact placement of the dryline by the afternoon. A few models have the dryline setting up north to south across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Southerly surface winds east of the dryline will give way to decent enough low level moisture and dewpoints in the lower 60s. The biggest uncertainty with storms for Monday will be the capping inversion and lingering cooler airmass from the storms Sunday night. With southeast surface winds, temperatures may struggle to warm into the 80s. If convective temperatures can be reached, the environment is supportive of thunderstorms with plenty of buoyancy due to abundant CAPE values and steep mid-level lapse rates. However, bulk shear values are below 30 knots so pulsing short lived storms would be the main mode. Storm chances will quickly diminish into the evening hours as the dryline mixes farther east with the better instability, despite a potential shortwave disturbance in the flow aloft. The surface troughing will strengthen Tuesday as an upper trough swings across the Plains. The warmest temperatures are expected Tuesday with downsloping southwest winds giving way to triple digit heat across much of the forecast area. Temperatures will likely be just shy of any records. Conditions will remain dry as the dryline keeps just east of the area. Surface cyclogenesis will slide south across the area through the day Tuesday with a weak cold front bringing northeast winds overnight. Heading into the middle of the week and into next weekend, flow will shift to northwesterly aloft as the pattern resembles an omega block. The ridge will build just to the west of the forecast area with an upper low near Baja California and the other one near the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain hot, but below triple digits with east southeast surface upslope flow. Precipitation chances will return towards the end of the week and into the weekend with increased low level moisture due to the southeasterly surface flow and several weak disturbances in the northwesterly flow aloft, which will give way to afternoon storms developing along the higher terrain and being driven southeast across West Texas. Storm details will be refined as the forecast gets closer to the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR will prevail through most of the overnight period. MVFR CIGs are then expected to develop at CDS shortly before sunrise and persist through mid-morning. There is a small chance these MVFR CIGs also spread to LBB and PVW, but confidence is too low to include more than a FEW mention at this issuance. VFR then returns area-wide by midday. Some TS will be possible on Sunday evening, but will handle that potential with later issuances. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30