Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
982 FXUS64 KLZK 041938 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 238 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An MCV split off from the MCS over Oklahoma this morning and spun into central AR. Short term models were keying on convection developing in its wake this afternoon and bringing stronger storms toward central AR around 00Z. Some very weak convection is now developing in narrow bands behind it...but CAPE appears limited with a bit of a cap in place. Furthermore, HRRR runs now flipping and showing almost no convection this afternoon. I think it would be prudent to continue with some lower rain chances this afternoon thru early this evening...but my overall confidence in the forecast tonight is rather low. This morning models were showing another MCS forming over OK overnight, moving into Arkansas by morning in a somewhat repeat performance. Main difference is that models were trending toward considerably heavier rainfall overnight tonight versus last night. Short term model runs during the day were trying to develop this MCS further north, even into NW Arkansas. Latest run at publication was trending back south again. For the time being, I believe the best course of action is to put highest POPs west and northwest overnight, and trend the POPs spatially in the early morning hours to the southeast across AR. My primary concern with all of this isn`t the POPs, but rather the QPF forecast. At present, the highest QPF values appear to be over SE OK and SW AR. After consulting with neighboring offices, the decision was made to issue a flood watch for flash flooding. However, some adjustments may need to be made to this overnight after we have a better idea of where the MCS will develop. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Dry conditions are expected across the state at the start of the period but the break in rain chances isn`t expected to last very long. By the weekend, sfc ridging should shift east of the area providing a return of S-SW flow ahead of a cold front expected to sink south into the state. The expanding H500 ridge across the West is expected to begin to break down this weekend as a series of intense cyclones over central Canada work their way south toward the Great Lakes. This will lead to somewhere between a zonal and NW flow regime over the area and will provide an avenue for a steady stream of mid-level disturbances to move through. So, frequent rain chances and possible MCS activity will return to the forecast. Temperatures don`t look too out of hand through the period with perhaps the warmest day being Friday. Portions of northern AR may experience below normal temperatures into early next week with near normal readings elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 84 64 91 / 60 50 0 0 Camden AR 69 86 66 92 / 40 50 10 0 Harrison AR 66 82 61 86 / 80 20 0 0 Hot Springs AR 68 86 65 93 / 60 50 0 0 Little Rock AR 71 86 68 93 / 60 50 10 0 Monticello AR 72 86 69 92 / 30 70 20 10 Mount Ida AR 67 86 62 93 / 70 40 0 0 Mountain Home AR 68 84 61 87 / 80 30 0 0 Newport AR 71 85 65 91 / 60 60 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 71 85 68 92 / 40 70 10 0 Russellville AR 68 87 63 92 / 70 50 0 0 Searcy AR 70 85 65 91 / 50 50 0 0 Stuttgart AR 72 85 68 91 / 40 60 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ052-053-066-130-137- 140-141-230-237-240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....67