801
FXUS64 KLZK 072334
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

SFC high pressure is moving over the state early this Fri
afternoon...with a mostly clear sky and warm conditions ongoing.
Dewpts continue to drop across the state...with dewpts in the 50s
and 60s. Temps have warmed into the 80s to low 90s. Due to the low
dewpts...heat index values have remained near or even just below
actual air temps.

The SFC high pressure will shift east for tonight into Sat...with
SRLY winds returning. Lows tonight into Sat morning will drop down
into the 60s to low 70s...with the dry air remaining. Moisture
levels will increase for Sat with the increasing SRLY flow. An upper
disturbance will move ESE over SRN MO...approaching NRN AR late
tonight into Sat morning. Some increasing POPs are forecast as a
result for this portion of AR as this disturbance moves overhead.
While remnant outflow from morning convection looks to drop south
Sat...chances for precip will drop considerably across central to
especially SRN sections. Even so...will need to keep an eye on this
and there may be some small potential for convection to fire along
this outflow further south that currently forecast.

There will be a break in the precip Sat afternoon...but chances
return Sat night through Sun as a cold front moves south into the
state. Convection chances will increase into central sections...but
the front may slow or stall by Sun afternoon...with SRN sections
potentially remaining dry through Sun afternoon. Chances for SVR WX
look to remain low with the activity Sat and Sun...but given late
spring/early summer...cannot rule out a few isolated strong...maybe
briefly SVR TSRA. The chances for convection look to persist into at
least the early part of the long term period as the front starts
pushing further south over time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

To begin the period, NW flow aloft will be over the area.
Additionally, surface high pressure will be east of the state as a
low pressure system tracks out of the Central Plains into the Great
Lakes region. This will bring the chance of rain across at least
northern and western locations...with rain making it south into
central and southern Arkansas possible. Multiple round of rain will
be possible under this NW flow until the pattern breaks down by
Wednesday. Calm and dry conditions are expected Wednesday night
through the rest of the period.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on
the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize,
damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF amounts will depend on
where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, QPF amounts
will remain on the low side with northwestern and western Arkansas
likely seeing the most. These areas could expect to see up to half
an inch through the period...with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with some slight chances
for PoPs on Saturday over Nrn sites. Clouds should begin to
decrease in coverage over Nrn sites late in the day on Saturday.
Winds will be light overnight, becoming gusty out of the SW at 10
to 20 kts on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  67  90  71 /   0  10  20  10
Camden AR         92  67  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       88  68  89  68 /   0  20  30  20
Hot Springs AR    95  68  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  91  70  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     91  67  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      90  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  89  67  89  69 /   0  30  40  20
Newport AR        88  67  90  73 /   0  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     90  68  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   90  70  95  71 /   0   0  10   0
Searcy AR         89  65  91  72 /   0   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      90  68  91  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...70