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FXUS64 KLZK 170515
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Scattered, diurnally driven convection has developed across parts of
the north this afternoon. The upper high that has been the dominate
feature of late has moved far enough to the east to allow convection
to develop in the rather moist and unstable environment in place.
Convection is expected to die off later this evening and a return to
dry conditions for the overnight hours.

Aforementioned upper high will be located over the southeast CONUS
come Monday morning as troughing moves into the Pacific northwest.
Southerly flow between these two systems will continue to draw in
gulf moisture resulting in additional diurnal convection with POPS
higher Monday afternoon as an upper level impulse moves through.

Precipitation will be of the hit or miss variety and even where rain
does fall, amounts will be very high with most areas averaging under
a quarter of an inch. While widespread severe weather is not
expected, a stray strong storm or to can not be ruled out in this
type of environment.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler versus the past several days
with the increase in cloud cover and precipitation chances. Still,
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper ridge will be situated over the eastern US at the start of
the long term period with troughing noted across the West. Along the
south/southwestern periphery of the eastern ridge, the flow will be
from E-W along the Gulf Coast. This will allow a series of upper
waves to move inland along the TX/LA portion of the coast.
Regardless of actual tropical development in the Gulf this week, a
period of heavy rain and potential flooding is expected along the TX
coast.

Some low chances for diurnally driven activity will remain possible
on Wednesday across the state with temperatures remaining a bit
cooler than what has been seen recently. By late week and into the
weekend, the H500 ridge to the east of AR will gradually expand its
influence and once again encompass the state. Chances for afternoon
convection look to decrease and temperatures will likely increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period under high
pressure. Diurnal SHRA/TSRA will be possible through the
afternoon/evening hours Monday for mainly central and southern
terminals. VCTS has been written in for those sites. Southerly
winds are expected through the period. Winds could be gusty
associated with any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  72  87  70 /  50  10  30   0
Camden AR         91  71  86  70 /  50  10  30  10
Harrison AR       88  70  86  68 /  20   0  20   0
Hot Springs AR    90  71  89  70 /  40  10  30  10
Little Rock   AR  90  74  89  73 /  50  10  30  10
Monticello AR     90  73  86  71 /  70  10  30  10
Mount Ida AR      90  70  88  69 /  40  10  30  10
Mountain Home AR  88  71  86  70 /  30  10  30   0
Newport AR        90  73  87  72 /  50  10  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  73  87  72 /  50  10  30  10
Russellville AR   90  73  89  71 /  40  10  30  10
Searcy AR         90  72  87  70 /  50  10  30  10
Stuttgart AR      90  74  86  73 /  50  10  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...73