304
FXUS64 KLZK 221945
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
245 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Latest satellite imagery indicates clear conditions across all but
the southern section of the state.  Across this section, broken CU
were noted, along to the south of a developing warm front,
subjectively analyzed at 18z from near Mena, to Arkadelphia, to
Dermott.

The warm front will move northward through tonight. Overnight, a
strong low level jet will develop across western sections of the
state. Forecaster confidence is increasing that the low level jet,
interacting with the frontal boundary, will initiate convection
during the late evening hours.  This activity most likely would
develop across northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri, with the
forecast storm motion vector indicating initially a northwest
movement, with this vector veering with time.   Forecasts account
for this scenario.

On Sunday, the previously frontal boundary will move southeastward
as a cold front.  This feature will focus convection, with overall
coverage and intensity increasing as the feature moves to the
southeast. All precipitation should end by sunrise Monday.

Dry conditions, with well above normal temperatures are expected
for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat
Mar 22 2025

A northwest flow pattern will prevail during this period.  A
northern stream short wave will affect the forecast area early in
the period.  Dampening short wave energy in the southern stream will
approach late.  Forecasts will reflect precipitation chances, with
overall impacts generally low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Several different CAM guidance were used to integrate TSRA chances
overnight. MVFR condtions will develop across most areas during
the second half of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  75  45  74 /  40  40   0   0
Camden AR         58  79  47  77 /   0  40  50   0
Harrison AR       53  72  42  71 /  50  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    58  76  47  75 /  10  30  10   0
Little Rock   AR  58  75  48  74 /  20  30  20   0
Monticello AR     58  78  51  75 /   0  50  70   0
Mount Ida AR      59  77  46  77 /  10  30  10   0
Mountain Home AR  53  72  42  70 /  60  30   0   0
Newport AR        54  73  45  71 /  40  60  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     57  77  48  75 /  10  50  40   0
Russellville AR   57  77  45  75 /  30  20   0   0
Searcy AR         54  74  44  73 /  20  40  10   0
Stuttgart AR      58  75  47  73 /  10  50  30   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55