343
FXUS64 KLZK 091724
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

-More chances for showers/thunderstorms Sunday into early Monday as
a new front moves into region

-Drier/warm conditions throughout most of the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A few light showers are all that remains on radar late this
evening across parts of central Arkansas from a complex of strong
to severe thunderstorms that moved across parts of western
Arkansas just a few hours ago.

Surface analysis late this evening shows a frontal boundary over
far northwestern Arkansas. Latest model guidance shows the
boundary pushing southeast overnight before washing out around
sunrise Saturday morning. High pressure currently over the
southeastern US will transport warmer air and deeper moisture
north into the state during the day on Saturday. Drier weather is
expected statewide on Saturday with temperatures topping out in
the lower to mid 80s with light S/SW winds and partly cloudy
skies.

By Saturday night, a cold front will dive south within northwest
flow aloft out of the central Plains and approach the state
Saturday afternoon/evening. The cold front will push south into
northern Arkansas Sunday afternoon. The SPC(Storm Prediction
Center) has placed parts of central, western, southern, and
southwest Arkansas under a Slight risk(Category 2 out of 5) for
severe weather on Sunday afternoon/evening. Ahead of the front,
the atmosphere will become unstable with CAPE values across
central and southern Arkansas in the range of 1000-1500 J/kg with
bulk shear values of 30-40 kts with some areas across far western,
northwest, and far southwest Arkansas seeing bulk shear values of
40-50 kts. If these parameters hold it, multicell clusters with
embedded supercells more likely in aforementioned areas with
better shear. Main hazards across the risk area at this time will
be damaging winds along with large hail Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. The front will push southeast out of the state
late Sunday night into Monday.

Behind the front, a brief shot of cooler and drier air will lead
to temperatures trending a few degrees below normal as high
pressure builds into the state from the central/northern Plains
under northwest flow aloft. Additional ridging will move into the
state from the southern Plains as the upper level shortwave and
cut off low over the Great Lakes region moves to the eastern
seaboard by Thursday morning. A gradually warming trend is
expected through the week with temperatures running just a few
degrees above normal for high temperatures.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Expect VFR flight category for the entire forecast period from early
Saturday morning through early Sunday morning across all sites with
the exception of KLLQ which is expected to experience lowered CIGS
early Saturday morning to as low as MVFR flight category until late
Saturday morning when the cloud deck will lift. Expect for the first
few hours of the forecast period that the site of KHRO may
experience surface wind gusts in excess of almost 20 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through much of the period.
A pattern change is expected late in the period as a storm system
tracks across the state. This will bring low CIGs and increased
rain chances Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. MVFR/IFR
conditions are likely with periods of rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  76  54  74 /  10  50  20   0
Camden AR         61  83  57  76 /  10  60  50  10
Harrison AR       58  72  49  73 /  20  70  10   0
Hot Springs AR    61  78  56  74 /  30  60  40   0
Little Rock   AR  61  78  56  73 /  10  50  50   0
Monticello AR     62  84  60  74 /  10  50  60  10
Mount Ida AR      61  76  56  74 /  30  60  50   0
Mountain Home AR  57  73  49  73 /  10  50  10   0
Newport AR        60  78  55  74 /  10  60  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     62  82  57  74 /  10  60  50   0
Russellville AR   61  76  56  76 /  40  60  30   0
Searcy AR         58  78  53  74 /  10  40  40   0
Stuttgart AR      62  80  58  73 /  10  50  40   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...73