Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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256 FXUS64 KLZK 190731 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 In bringing a close to the work-week, the song remains the same across the most of the CWA from previous forecasts. In the upper lvls, a large trof will be present over the Western region of the CONUS while a persistent ridge will be over the CWA and Arkansas. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to meander around the region. Expect a continuation of overall fair and dry conditions with temperatures that will be in the ballpark of 5 to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals for mid to late September. However, transitioning from the short-term forecast period to the long-term forecast period or simply put Friday evening into Saturday a few isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out across northwestern and far northern Arkansas near the Arkansas/Missouri border as a cold front will attempt to make a run at Arkansas, but will stop north and west of the state, but still be in close enough proximity to create some lower end POP chances across northwest and far northern Arkansas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An upper lvl ridge looks to remain over Arkansas throughout the weekend with the only opportunity at POPs restricted to a low chance across far northern Arkansas. Across most of the CWA and state of Arkansas dry conditions will persist. In response, expect temperatures over the weekend to remain 5 to 10 degrees above average compared to climatological normals for mid to late September. On Monday into Tuesday, an upper lvl trof will move over the Southern Plains region of CONUS and into the Mid-West region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front will begin slowly pushing through the state from the west. Expect POP chances to increase from Monday into Tuesday across the CWA as the cold front progresses eastward through the state. On Wednesday, POP chances will increase for the entire CWA and much of the state of Arkansas as a second upper lvl trof will move over the region in tandem with a cold front at the sfc. Expect widespread chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. From the period of Monday through Wednesday, expect temperatures to regress back to values that are near average compared to climatological normals for this time of the year with a series of cold front moving through the state aiding in cooler air funneling in behind the FROPA. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions are to be expected over the majority of the forecast period from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning across all sites. The only exception will be the possibility of patchy fog that may drop all sites to MVFR flight category with a brief period of IFR possible just prior to sunrise and into the early morning hours on Thursday. However, model confidence continues to wane toward MVFR flight category. Other than the dropping VSBY, no other changes to flight category are expect and VFR conditions will persist after Thursday morning for all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 89 68 90 71 / 0 0 10 10 Camden AR 94 68 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 90 69 94 71 / 0 10 10 10 Hot Springs AR 95 70 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 93 70 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 93 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 95 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 90 68 93 71 / 0 10 10 10 Newport AR 88 67 90 71 / 0 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 93 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 90 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 90 67 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74