Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KLZK 191133 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018


Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...



The SHRA/TSRA will shift east/NE through this morning...with
conditions dropping to as low as LIFR at some sites. Do expect
some improving conditions by this afternoon for most sites as the
drier air arrives. Some gusts to 20 kts may be seen from the west.
New SHRA will be possible overnight...mainly for the NRN two-
thirds of the CWA.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 301 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The SFC warm front remains south of the CWA early this Mon
morning...with just some isolated to scattered convection seen north
of this boundary. While most activity has been either non-SVR or
only marginally SVR...there may remain an isolated SVR storm with
large hail the primary threat. Further west...a broken line of
convection stretches from near Muskogee...south near Sallisaw and
into NE TX just south of Hugo, OK. ERN OK...activity forming along
the main front to the west of AR. Expect this activity to shift east
into WRN sections of the state over the next few hrs...with a few
marginally briefly isolated SVR storms possible again with
this activity. Hail will again the primary hazard with the strongest
storms...but some strong winds may also be seen along the SRN edge
of this line as the warm front to the south begins to lift north
over time.

By later this morning into the afternoon hrs...the focus for
convection will shift to the NRN/NERN sections of the state just
ahead of the upper closed low. This area will be north of the SFC
warm elevated convection will result in the main hazards
being marginally SVR hail...with an isolated SVR storm possible.
However...more widespread SVR potential will exist further east of
the area by late this morning.

Behind the convection and SFC cold front...some breezy WRLY winds
will bring in drier air to portions of the SW two-thirds of the CWA.
This will drop RH values below 40 percent this afternoon in this
region of the state...resulting in an elevated wild fire threat.

By this evening and overnight...a new upper shortwave will drop SE
into the state...with a return to some SHRA for the NRN two-thirds
of AR. Dry conditions will then be seen for Tue afternoon and
evening...but the cooler temps expected will keep RH values
elevated. Even so...winds may still keep an elevated wild fire
threat in place.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Mid to late week, the airmass will modify, with high pressure moving
southeastward, and southerly flow returning. Temperatures will warm
back into the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday. Upper flow will de-
amplify, and gradually shift to more zonal in nature. At the same
time, low pressure developing in lee of the Rockies will drag a
frontal boundary toward the region, with showers and thunderstorms
becoming possibly by Friday. By the time the front gets close to the
state, it will slow down or even stall as an upper ridge attempts to
build over the Gulf of Mexico.

With the combination of waves moving through in the mean flow near
and ahead of the front, increasing Gulf moisture, more of a Pacific
fetch developing aloft, and the proximity of the frontal boundary
itself, it looks as though we could be setting up for an unsettled
period into next weekend and possibly beyond. Though there are some
minor timing differences in the models, they appear to be in
surprisingly good agreement regarding synoptic scale details. Stay


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


Aviation...62 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.