Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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378
FXUS64 KLZK 112332
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.AVIATION...
High pressure will slowly move to the east through period with
southerly flow returning for the most of the terminals. A strong
disturbance well to the north will push a front towards NW
Arkansas late in the period with a return to NE winds and a
subsequent increase in moisture but no precipitation expected in
the TAF period. Widespread VFR conditions are expected with
generally light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday

Surface ridging was centered across LA this afternoon with clear
and seasonable conditions prevailing across the region. Aloft,
quasi-zonal flow remains in place with an active northern stream
focused across the upper Midwest.

Through tomorrow morning, tranquil conditions will persist as
surface ridging slides east. We will see a transition back to
southerly return flow through the day with moisture beginning to
increase once again over the area. By afternoon, a strong upper
disturbance well to our north will push a frontal boundary towards
the southern Plains.

Despite only modest large-scale moisture return, some enhanced
moisture will advect poleward along the approaching front. Overall
forcing will be weak but marginal instability and convergence
along the boundary could generate isolated to scattered showers
and storms across western AR Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
Severe weather is not expected. The front will slow to a crawl by
the end of the period and may not reach the southern portions of
the area before stalling.

Temperatures will remain near to above average on Monday with
highs in the 60s to low-80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. By
Tuesday, slightly cooler air will work into northern portions of
the state where highs will only reach the upper 50s to low 60s.
Elsewhere, expect near to below average temperatures with highs
in the 60s and 70s Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Zonal flow aloft will remain in place over the forecast area with
H500 lows circulating across the western US and from the Great Lakes
to the Mid-Atlantic Region. The combination of these two systems
will provide frequent shortwave energy working across the region
from west to east.

At the sfc, strong ridging centered from the Northern to Central
Plains will provide the quite the influence across much of the
country. Locally, this will provide northern to easterly flow
through much of the next 7-10 days.

The period is shaping up to be fairly cloudy with frequent rain
chances and below average readings expected. Overall rainfall
amounts aren`t expected to be very high with limited potential for
thunder.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56



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