434
FXUS64 KLZK 231720
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Regional composite reflectivity depicted ongoing precip acrs much of
Wrn AR and Nrn AR/Srn MO, asctd w/ a cdfrnt advancing thru the Srn
Plains. This cdfrnt wl cont to move S/Ewrd slowly thru the day
today, and serve as the focus for additional convective activity
later this aftn/evng acrs portions of Wrn Cntrl, Cntrl, and Nrn
Cntrl to Ern AR.

W/ the cdfrnt in place acrs at least N/Wrn AR by later this mrng,
asctd Bkn to Ovc cloud cover wl be in place, alongside Sctd showers
and isolated convective activity thru the mrng hrs. This should keep
temps over much of the Ozarks cooler today, w/ readings in the mid
70s. Along and ahead of the advancing frnt, temps are still set to
climb into the upper 80s to low 90s by this aftn.

Regarding thunderstorm and severe wx potential later this aftn, a
similar pattern as Sun is expected, w/ the corridor of convective
activity extending acrs a larger swath of Nrn to Cntrl and Ern AR
invof the frnt. Incrsg cloud cover and weaker mid-level lapse rates
should contribute to less impressive vertical buoyancy profiles thru
this aftn to evng, w/ generally 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, overlaid
by sufficient bulk shear in excess of 30 to 40 kts. Sctd clusters of
thunderstorms are progged to initiate b/w 18-21z acrs the N/Wrn half
of the FA, and then move Ewrd into a more favorable environment
along and ahead of the cdfrnt. Generally, some isolated instances of
hail and strong to damaging wind gusts wl be possible w/ these
storms thru the aftn to evng hrs later today.

In addition to isolated severe wx, some storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall acrs Nrn AR this aftn, and yield some local flooding
issues.

Mon night and thru Tues, the aforementioned cdfrnt should cont to
move S/Ewrd, and clear the state sometime later Tues mrng. Covg of
precip wl linger acrs the Ern portions of the FA thru the day Tues,
w/ cooler temps overspreading the state in the wake of the frnt.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The mid work-week through the end of the weekend will overall be an
unsettled pattern across the CWA and state of Arkansas.

A H500 closed low will become cutoff from the flow pattern over the
Middle Mississippi River Valley region of the CONUS between two
areas of amplified ridging: one area of ridging over the Western
CONUS and a second area over the far Southeastern region of the
CONUS. Later into the work-week, the cutoff low is progged to move
over Arkansas and meander over or in close proximity of Arkansas
through the end of the work-week and through the weekend. The upper
lvl cutoff low will likely begin to interact with the approaching
tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico which is likely to
be Helene at this point of the forecast, but confidence remains low
of exactly how these two upper lvl features will react, but the
cutoff low is a major driving force in speeding up the process of
reeling in the tropical system to progress quickly northward and
make landfall sooner than expected along the Gulf Coast than if this
feature was not present.

Back to the CWA, Arkansas, and putting this altogether; During the
middle of the work-week Arkansas will see increased chances for post-
frontal POPs given the placement of a frontal boundary near the I-55
corridor within Mississippi. Into late work-week and the weekend a
sfc low with a sfc trof is expected to be fixated across the CWA
which will promote sfc convergence and rising air that will likely
become adequate cloud cover and equate to rain and an isolated
thunderstorm or two for portions of the CWA and state of Arkansas.

Confidence overall does lower significantly given specifics through
the weekend as the track of the tropical system likely to be
developed at this point named Helene will greatly impact our
forecast despite most of the latest ensembles keeping the system
after landfall east of the CWA in the Deep South to Mid-South
regions of the CONUS; however, a few do move the remnants of the
expected tropical system into the Natural State. We should begin to
paint a clearer picture over the next couple of days given more
model data, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance, and additional
upper air radiosonde flights that will be conducted across the South
and Southeast portions of the CONUS to better forecast where this
tropical system which as of writing this remains only an invest in
the Gulf of Mexico, but will likely become Helene in the near
future.

The key takeaway from the long-term forecast discussion or forecast
across the CWA from mid work-week through the weekend is to expect
numerous rain and isolated thunderstorm chances with a tradeoff of
temperatures with respect to both low and high temperatures that
will be near to below average compared to climatological normals for
this time of the year given increased cloud cover and increased POPs
across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A Low pressure system and cold front are moving across the region,
producing rainshowers and thunderstorms. These storms are expected
to begin to develop by mid- to late-afternoon. Some of the storms
may become strong to severe, especially across central to
north/northeast Arkansas. Elsewhere across the forecast area,
isolated showers and storms will be possible through Tuesday
morning. MVFR conditions due to lowered ceilings are expected to
impact all terminals, especially during periods of persistent
precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  81  61  75 /  60  10  20  40
Camden AR         68  85  64  78 /  50  20  30  40
Harrison AR       60  75  55  73 /  50  10  20  30
Hot Springs AR    65  85  63  80 /  40  10  30  40
Little Rock   AR  68  85  65  79 /  50  10  30  30
Monticello AR     71  86  66  79 /  40  30  20  40
Mount Ida AR      61  84  59  80 /  30   0  30  40
Mountain Home AR  62  77  58  75 /  70  10  20  30
Newport AR        67  81  62  76 /  60  20  20  30
Pine Bluff AR     68  84  64  77 /  60  20  30  40
Russellville AR   63  83  60  79 /  50   0  30  30
Searcy AR         67  83  62  77 /  50  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      69  83  64  77 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...71