766
FXUS64 KMAF 022317
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

One more round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible today,
and then we dry out and the heat cranks back up across the region.
This afternoon, an outflow boundary associated with earlier
convection north of the area continues to sag southward, with new
convection developing off the Caprock and across the Red River
Valley. This feature may aid in the development of thunderstorms
over the northeastern Permian Basin over the next few hours, though
there remains a bit of uncertainty in this outcome as the outflow`s
progression slows and forcing associated with its western periphery
wanes somewhat. Another feature that could serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development today is the dryline, currently drifting
slowly eastward across the area. And, while flow aloft remains
fairly weak and quasi-zonal, a subtle shortwave evident on water
vapor imagery over eastern New Mexico may provide an enhancement to
ascent. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how storms will
pan out, with CAMs largely in agreement that storms will be
isolated, but in disagreement regarding location. Overall, there may
be a storm or two that manages to develop off of the Davis and Glass
Mountains into Pecos County, and another potential focus across the
northern Permian Basin in closer proximity to the aforementioned
outflow boundary and shortwave. Regardless, any storm that develops
today will have the potential to become severe, with large to very
large hail the primary concern given steep midlevel lapse rates,
along with damaging wind and locally heavy rain.  Storms will move
eastward, exiting the area late evening.

Aside from storm potential, temperatures today are on target to top
out in the 90s for most, with 100s through portions of the river
valleys. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Chinati
Mountains, Davis Mountains and Foothills, and Brewster County, with
the hottest temperatures around 110F focused along the Rio Grande in
the Big Bend. Tonight will be a quiet, warm night as moisture
remains elevated, with lows 2-5 degrees above normal in the lower to
middle 60s west to middle 70s east and along the Rio Grande. Monday
will be even hotter with lower 100s becoming more widespread, and
additional Heat Advisories expected for the same areas as today,
possibly expanding across the Pecos Valley and Stockton Plateau.
After an active several days storm-wise, Monday will finally provide
a reprieve, with dry conditions areawide.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Dry and hot describes much of the long term as Tuesday through
Thursday of this week will be the hottest stretch of the year so
far. Highs each day reach into the upper 90s to low 100s for most
with only the higher terrain "only" reaching into the low to mid
90s. Much of Big Bend will be scorching as portions of the area
touch the 110s. The heat will stick around due to a broad ridge that
takes hold over the western US and begin to move near West Texas and
southeast New Mexico. Shortwave troughs undercut the ridge (sounds a
little like monsoon season?) and lead to isolated or scattered
storms for the end of the coming week. Lowered PoPs slightly to
reflect some uncertainty for both the timing and possible location
of storms that far out. With the troughs pushing into the area, the
heat takes a bit of a break as temperatures drop near normal in the
90s for most.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few storms remain possible at FST and MAF this evening. Any
storms could produce gusty, erratic winds, hail and heavy rain,
and frequent lightning. Otherwise, VFR VIS and CIGs prevail
throughout TAF period. Winds decrease as storms move out of area
02Z-03Z, with winds backing from southwesterly to southerly at
CNM, HOB, and INK, but remaining southeasterly at the other
terminals. Winds become westerly 09Z-13Z at CNM and PEQ, and
15Z-17Z at other terminals. Gusty winds develop by 15Z-17Z into
end of period, gustiest over SE NM plains into western and central
Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 102  69 104 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 66 100  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74 103  72 105 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71 103  70 104 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  91  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    63 100  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  95  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72 101  68 103 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   71 101  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     66 105  66 105 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94