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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211920
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

* Widespread heavy rainfall possible this afternoon and tonight

* Flash Flood Watch across the Davis Mtns and Pecos county south
  to the Rio Grande through tonight

* Decreasing rain chances Sunday, but locally heavy rainfall still
  possible for portions of the area

The active weather pattern continues today, as strong southerly to
southeasterly surface flow maintains above normal low-level
moisture, and southwesterly flow aloft yields a fetch of
subtropical moisture over the region, courtesy of Hurricane
Lorena. Some locations across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
have already received a round or two of rainfall over the past 24
hours, with over 1.5" of rain received at Welch and Ft. Stockton,
and nearly 2" at Chisos Basin and Rio Grande Village as of this
morning. Precipitable water per the 12Z MAF sounding was 1.62",
which is only 0.14" short of the all-time daily record for PWAT on
September 21st. Models suggest PWAT will continue increasing
through tonight across the entire region, with an axis of around
2" extending from northern Mexico northeastward across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin, 2-3 standard deviations above normal per
NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thus, heavy rainfall and associated
flooding and flash flooding remain the primary concerns with
storms that develop, with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected through tonight associated with impulses in
the southwesterly flow aloft, evident on satellite imagery. While
there could be a marginal severe threat this afternoon, clouds and
precipitation have limited surface based instability, and thus it
looks like the strongest storms capable of damaging winds and
hail will be across the South Plains and locations further north.
Given antecedent conditions, as well as anticipated rainfall
through tonight, have elected to hoist a Flash Flood Watch across
the Davis Mountains, Pecos county, Presidio county, and Brewster
county (including the Big Bend Area) through tonight. Locations
there have already received appreciable rainfall, and additional
precipitation would yield flooding concerns, especially in complex
terrain, and could result in potential flooding along portions of
the Rio Grande. Will defer to later shifts for potential expansion
of the Flash Flood Watch, pending the evolution of convection
later this afternoon/evening.

The upper trough responsible for the persistent southwesterly flow
aloft will begin to move into the Central Plains on Sunday as
remnants of Lorena are absorbed into the flow, shunting the best
available moisture to the east, and resulting in decreasing rain
chances (though, some locally heavy rain will remain possible,
especially across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos). Widespread cloudcover will keep temperatures in check,
with near normal highs in the 80s for most expected again on
Sunday. Weak ridging will develop over the region early next week,
allowing temperatures to warm up a few degrees. Another trough is
progged to dig southward across the western CONUS next week,
developing into a cutoff low in the vicinity of southwestern
Arizona/Baja, a solution echoed by both the ECMWF and GFS.
Depending on the eventual position of this low, as well as its
progression, rain chances could persist through midweek. Guidance
indicates that by late next week, the low will open up and lift
northeastward across New Mexico and into the Plains, resulting in
potential warmer, drier, and potentially windy conditions across
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late week and into next
weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  68  89 /  80  30  30  40
Carlsbad                       64  88  66  90 /  50  10  10  30
Dryden                         74  92  72  94 /  30  30  20  30
Fort Stockton                  67  87  67  89 /  80  40  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 59  79  63  82 /  60  20  20  30
Hobbs                          63  85  65  86 /  80  10  10  30
Marfa                          60  80  59  83 /  90  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  87  69  90 /  80  30  20  40
Odessa                         69  87  69  90 /  90  30  20  30
Wink                           68  88  68  91 /  90  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

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