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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with just some high clouds are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Light
and variable winds will become southeast by this afternoon at
10 to 15 mph and gusty and continue this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hrs. Winds
will settle over the next few hours with shifting winds out of the
south by early morning at all terminals. Winds will become a
little breezier Sunday PM, but most winds will settle between
12-18kts with sporadic gusts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

DISCUSSION...

A strong sfc low now located over the Upper Midwest dragged a dry
Pacific front through our region earlier this morning. Much drier
air has filtered in behind the departing front. Winds have also
increased this afternoon due to clear skies and mixing aloft from a
departing 700 mb jet max. Winds should subside rapidly after sunset
and allow for ample radiational cooling tonight. Temperatures may
fall into the mid 30s in some locations. Tomorrow should be a
beautiful day with temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, albeit
a bit breezy. Winds will shift around to the southeast allowing
moisture to slowly be pulled back into the region later tomorrow
evening. By Monday morning, a shortwave trof will be on the doorstep
of our western CWA. This trof will quickly translate eastward
throughout the day. As it does so a dryline will develop and race
east into Central TX. There may be a few showers and storms that
develop over the far eastern CWA, but will quickly exit by the
afternoon. Strong winds should overspread the area as a 50 kt 700
hpa jet rotates through the base of the trof. Guidance suggests
another round of high winds at GDP, but we will let later shifts
make the decision on a potential watch. Otherwise, high temperatures
should still hit the U70s to L80s behind the front. The departing
trof will send a cold front south on Tuesday. ECMWF and GFS show
this front hanging up over the NE Permian Basin which could see a
slightly cooler day than the rest of the CWA. Temperatures should
remain above normal until Thursday when another cold front arrives.
The timing of the front is still uncertain, but temperatures should
generally be cooler to the north and much warmer south by Thursday
afternoon. By Friday much cooler air should enter the area behind
the front. Temperatures look like they will struggle to break out of
the 60s and this cool down could last into Sat-Sun. There is a
low chance of precipitation behind the front on Friday, but this
will depend on how much moisture there is available to work with
and strength of lift from a weak shortwave. Otherwise, dry
weather until then.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  75  52  80 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       43  74  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  80  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  78  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  69  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  73  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  75  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

87/44