Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Light SE winds
this morning will increase and become gusty by around 15-18Z, with
gusts up to around 25kt expected areawide through this evening.
Winds look to diminish somewhat by 28/06Z, with the exception of
MAF and FST where elevated/gusty winds look to continue through
the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

A ridge that`s been building over the Desert Southwest will
translate eastward across the region today, and coincident with
increasing southerly to southeasterly return flow, will mark a rapid
return to well above normal temperatures this afternoon. Highs will
top out in the upper 90s and lower 100s for most, with the hottest
temperatures close to 110 degrees possible through portions of the
Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. High resolution guidance/CAMs
indicate potential for some diurnally driven storms over the higher
terrain of the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau this afternoon.
Unfortunately, any rainfall would be light, with a more likely
outcome being elevated storms producing virga, gusty downburst
winds, and lightning. Given the ongoing drought and otherwise dry
conditions, lightning-caused wildfires may be a concern.

Increasing low-level moisture will keep temperatures overnight
tonight on the warm side, with lows only expected to drop into the
60s and lower 70s for most of the area. Temperatures will soar on
Saturday, as the aforementioned ridge shifts eastward and a trough
moves ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Flow aloft will transition
to southwesterly, with a developing 850mb thermal ridge and
downsloping southwesterly surface flow yielding highs in the lower
100s for much of the region. Heat Advisory conditions may be
possible across portions of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, the
mountain areas, and Rio Grande Valley Saturday afternoon, so those
with outdoor plans this weekend will need to plan accordingly as
heat-related illnesses will be an increasing concern. Aside from the
heat, Fire Weather concerns will also return in earnest Saturday,
given the unseasonably hot, dry, and windy conditions expected
across the area, and more on this can be found in the Fire Weather
Discussion below. Further, some guidance indicates the potential for
storms to develop during the late afternoon/early evening along the
dryline over the Permian Basin. Inverted-V model soundings indicate
that storms that develop would be high-based, and mainly a downburst
wind and lightning threat. However, storms would likely remain
isolated, and weaken quickly after sunset Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Hot conditions will continue early next week amid strong
southwesterly, downslope flow. The dryline will mix east each
afternoon as southwesterly flow strengthens aloft due to a long-wave
trough over the West. Temperatures cool a bit Tuesday as winds back
to the southeast keeping moisture in place. This could allow for
some isolated convection along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. Models
then show a weak cold front oozing into the area midweek helping to
further cool temperatures close to normal. Rain chances also pick up
a bit given the boundary in the area. At this point it doesn`t look
like a drought-buster, but at least something.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

After a few days of cooler conditions with scattered rainfall we
will transition back into a mostly hot, dry pattern for the next
few days. The rain we saw did little to affect ERC values across
the area as they are forecast to reach >97th percentile by this
weekend. Southerly winds will return this afternoon, but dry air
across S TX will keep any appreciable moisture away another day.
Look for near critical conditions by afternoon across portions of
SE NM south to the Big Bend as RH`s fall into the single digits
and winds increase to near 15 mph.

Stronger flow aloft will lead to gusty winds this weekend which
will combine with near record high temperatures and single digit
RH`s to produce RFTI`s 5-7. Critical fire weather conditions and
still cured fuels give enough confidence to upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning Saturday and a Fire Weather Watch Sunday. Areas of most
concern continue to be SE NM and locations bordering. Even
locations that saw rain this past week will likely not see green-
up for a while. The fire weather threat will continue into Monday
before a front brings moisture and a chance for rain midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  72 105  74 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                102  65 104  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  100  70 104  71 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton           100  72 105  71 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           94  69  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    98  66 102  65 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    94  58  97  58 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  71 104  72 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   99  72 104  73 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                    103  68 106  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ Saturday for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...84


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