Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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738 FXUS64 KMAF 112309 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 609 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak disturbance continue to move east across portions of the Permian Basin. A few locations saw brief heavy rain and some small hail. Unfortunately, forecast models are really struggling today, especially the CAMs. This gives us low confidence heading into this afternoon and evening regarding more storm chances. Clouds are beginning to clear along and west of the Pecos River which will lead to destabilization ahead of another shortwave expected to arrive over the next few hours. If we see enough heating an additional round of storms will develop mainly west of the Pecos River and move east. Most storms will remain elevated with large hail being the main threat. Further south near the Davis Mountains east onto the Stockton Plateau storms could become more surface based. This would allow for more of a damaging wind threat in addition to large hail. Winds veer to the west and southwest Sunday with the passage of an upper trough to our north. Drier, downsloping surface flow will help warm temperatures significantly with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Warm and dry days return for Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge passes overhead. Meanwhile, persistent south-southeasterly flow across the Permian Basin helps to sharpen a dryline backed up against the higher terrain by Wednesday morning. This dryline is sharpened in time for the next upper trough to approach from the west. Good moisture and steep lapse rates should lead to a fair amount of instability east of the dryline with the NBM and clusters still in agreement of seeing 1500+ J/kg in the warm sector. This paired with 30-40kts of shear could suggest that Wednesday may shape up to be our next day of severe weather...we`ll keep an eye on this as we get a bit closer. A cold front is ushered into the region on the heels of the aforementioned trough, brining northerly winds and cooler temperatures in briefly for Thursday before temperatures quickly rebound for the tail-end of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 All terminals returned to VFR except KHOB and KMAF which remain MVFR. CIGs should deteriorate overnight going to IFR at KHOB, KMAF, and KINK with a brief period of MVFR at other sites. Gusty east winds will diminish over the next couple of hours. Clouds will lift and clear mid morning Sunday with gusty west winds developing by afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 89 56 87 / 40 30 0 0 Carlsbad 57 86 56 86 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 67 95 64 94 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 63 92 60 88 / 30 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 78 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 58 85 53 84 / 30 0 0 0 Marfa 51 84 48 85 / 50 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 61 89 57 86 / 40 10 0 0 Odessa 63 89 59 87 / 40 10 0 0 Wink 62 91 59 90 / 30 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...29