Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KMAF 242016 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Tuesday...It looks like we will
get four...four letter words weather for the next several days.
We will get some "rain"..."cool" temps..."wind"...and maybe some
"dust" to go along with the wind.

Early this evening we can get some convection firing up along a
weak moisture gradient in the Eastern PB/Low Rolling Plains per
the hi-res HRRR and RAP13. KMAF radar is also showing a few echoes
over the southern mountains. There is the possibility of
strong/severe storms in the northeast CWA...model soundings for
Snyder indc a pretty pronounced inverted V sounding indicating the
possibility of strong/severe winds with any convection. A
shortwave moving thru the Plains will send a strong cold front
thru the CWA tonight. Models are indc strong Gap winds thru GDP
tonight/Wed morning. MOS Guidance usually over forecasts the winds
so knocked them down a bit. Have also issued a Wind Advisory for
the SE New Mexico Plains for the same time period...but it looks
like a marginal event. Regardless...pilots should avoid flying
over the Guadalupe Mountains tonight and Wednesday morning due to
extreme hazardous flying conditions.

Wednesday will be significantly cooler with temps 20-25 degrees
below normal. There is a chance of showers with a slight chc of
thunder tomorrow...best chances in the east. Drier and warmer
weather is in store for the area on Thursday.

For the extended tended to broadbrush the forecast with slight chc
pops Friday into early next week..with temps a little cooler than
normal...warming to a little above normal early next week. The GFS
is wetter with a deeper and faster trof moving thru the Western
US...with a deep southerly flow over the Southern Plains
early/middle portions of next week. The ECMWF is a little slower.
Depending how deep the trof is we might be able to get some low
level return flow from the Gulf the middle of next week...but
that`s a long way off.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  57  43  78 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       50  63  46  85 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         66  70  49  80 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  55  60  46  84 /  10  50  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  55  47  75 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  60  44  79 /  30  30  10  10
Marfa                          54  59  43  80 /  20  30  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  58  44  79 /  50  50  10   0
Odessa                         50  58  44  79 /  50  40  10   0
Wink                           52  60  46  82 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/33



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.