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032
FXUS64 KMAF 231106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN IFR has sneaked into KCNM, but trends show any low cigs
vacating to VFR in the next few hrs. MVFR cigs at KHOB/KMAF will
linger till 13-14z before clearing, becoming prevailing VFR
everywhere by 15z. Gusty W/SW > 20kts winds will initiate late AM
through afternoon before settling after sunset. Patchy BLDU
possible at SE NM terminals and KMAF this PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021/

DISCUSSION...

A very active weather pattern continues today as a strong storm
system brings high winds, blowing dust and critical fire weather.

An upper trough to our west and associated height falls across the
area have allowed Gulf moisture to shove west against the mountains
this morning. Low clouds accompany the moisture with dew points in
the 50`s. This won`t last much longer as very dry air just to our
west begins to mix in after sunrise this morning. As the upper
trough shifts east today, a Pacific front/dryline will quickly
move east with strong west winds developing behind the boundary.
The strongest winds are expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware
Mountains, but high clouds should limit mixing somewhat. Even so,
we expect high winds to occur for a few hours and have upgraded
the current watch to a High Wind Warning. Strong winds will also
overspread the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and adjacent plains
this afternoon so have issued a Wind Advisory for these
locations. Further east, winds will generally peak around 20-30
mph with higher gusts. This is expected to kick up the dust again
with locations near open fields seeing the lowest visibilities.
After a couple weeks of very cool temperatures and little fire
weather, that all ends today. Temperatures will rebound back to
near normal and combine with dry air and strong winds to produce
widespread critical fire weather. Please see the fire wx
discussion below.

Another cold front moves in overnight, but won`t do much for the
temperatures as we get right back into the 80`s Saturday. Weak
ridging ahead of another upper trough will allow temperatures to
climb well above normal Sunday into Monday. Most locations will
see highs back into the 90`s with critical fire weather conditions
coming back into the picture. This next upper trough will affect
the region by the middle of next week with more wind and possibly
some severe weather in the forecast. It will all depend on the
strength and timing of the trough which models don`t currently
agree on. The GFS is of course more progressive with drier air and
stronger winds while the ECMWF keeps the trough further west
longer and has at least some precip for eastern portions of the
area. This system is still several days out so there is still time
for the models to come together on a solution. Another cold front
will follow the passage of this trough bringing temperatures back
below normal late next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Quick moving trough across the west will enter the Panhandle with
strong westerly winds with significant drying due to regional
downsloping component. Min RH`s will sink into the single digits
with guidance showing b/w 6-10% during peak afternoon mixing along
with 20ft winds exceeding 20kts with stronger gusts for extended
period prior to sunset. Area RFTI indices capping up near 7 in the
Pecos River valley over Reeves, with widespread 5-6 values showing
up elsewhere. ERC`s had a slight bounce back from previous periods a
few weeks back, but still showing a large spread of 50-70th
percentile with a pocket of 70-90% across the aforementioned Pecos
River region into SE NM. Fuel loading is the one missing component
for higher end event, but curred fuels are common west of the Pecos
due to lower scale of overnight recoveries compared to the eastern
side of the river. IA and large fire potential is the main concern
given the respected fuels and atmospheric conditions. Considering
all the variables involved, elected to maintain the previous Red
Flag Warning for SE NM, Upper Trans Pecos, Sac Foothills, and
Guadalupe Mtns. Extended the RFW further west into the higher
terrain of west TX given the limited recovery overnight last few
evenings and RFTI`s ~5-6 during peak afternoon mixing.

Ambient dry conditions will remain across portions of west TX and SE
NM into the weekend, but lack stronger 20ft winds will mitigate a
more widespread concern for fire wx. The best potential anywhere
will be the Guadalupe`s and Sac Foothills on Sun as significantly
low RH`s, warmer temps, and 20ft winds borderline 20kts could
provide a period of elevated to critical fire weather. Another big
disturbance on Tuesday could lend a more widespread fire wx concern
with similar setup to today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  49  80  54 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         86  60  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  49  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  43  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          71  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           82  49  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           80  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

87/29/87