068
FXUS64 KMAF 181025
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
425 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 410 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

- A strong cold front moves across the area this evening,
  ushering in temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal through
  early next week. No impactful wintry precipitation expected.

- Dangerously low wind chills will likely (> 80% confidence)
  necessitate cold weather products early next week.

- Temperatures warm closer to normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Current observations show a cold front moving through the Permian
Basin. This front will drop low temperatures this morning into the
upper 20s to mid 30s across the Permian Basin, while areas along and
south of the Trans Pecos will be a bit warmer ranging from the upper
30s to mid 40s. Today`s highs are going to be much different
compared to yesterday as colder air behind the front swoops in
causing temperatures to be roughly 5 degrees below normal across
the Permian Basin. Areas further to the south remain near normal
as the cold front stalls over the higher terrain.

Tonight, a secondary and stronger cold front is expected to impact
the region. Ensemble and deterministic guidance are somewhat in
agreement with the lows ranging from the mid 20s to mid teens. Cloud
coverage and the winds behind the front may moderate temperatures to
being warmer than expected, especially for some portions of the
Permian Basin, southeastern New Mexico, and higher terrain. There is
a very low (5%) chance of flurries for far northern Lea County late
this evening, though moisture profiles and dendritic growth zones do
not look very promising for flurries to occur. Wind chill values may
reach near 5-10 degrees across isolated areas due to the higher
winds behind the cold front. A Cold Weather Advisory is not expected
at this time given the sporadic coverage of the wind chill values.
The cold front will also provide gap winds for Guadalupe Pass. A
brief three to six hour window of winds reaching High Wind Warning
criteria may occur beginning around the late evening into overnight
hours. Winds are expected to decrease significantly by Sunday
morning. A strong high pressure system will build in across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, as the cold front pushes its way out of
the region, supplying much colder and drier air on Sunday. Chilly
high temperatures (mainly lower 30s to lower 40s) are in store
Sunday. Such chilly temperatures are going to be the trend heading
into early next week.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

A broad and deep longwave trough will continue to encompass much
of the central and eastern U.S. late this weekend and will be
reinforced by another trough digging across the Rocky Mountains
and adjacent Plains Monday into Monday night. Our forecast area
will be located along the western periphery of the initial cold
surface ridge of high pressure that will translate from the
central Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley region and Gulf
Coast states Sunday night into Monday, allowing our winds to shift
more southeasterly to southerly during this time. We will still
remain under the influence of the very cold and dry airmass Sunday
night into Monday, and we expect low temperatures Monday morning
to range from the mid teens to lower 20s over much of our forecast
area. The pressure gradient along the western fringe of the
surface ridge will keep surface winds elevated late Sunday night
into early Monday morning, allowing for wind chill values to drop
well into the single digits across most of southeast New Mexico,
the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos region, and higher terrain areas.
Wind chills also look to range in the lower to mid teens across
much of the the Big Bend region. A Cold Weather Advisory issuance
will likely become necessary from late Sunday night through around
mid morning Monday to account for these very cold wind chill
values. Highs on Monday are forecast to remain well below normal
in the 30s and 40s across our region.

A reinforcing dome of cold surface high pressure will quickly
build southward into the Rockies and southern Plains Monday night
into Tuesday. Winds are forecast to shift northeasterly Monday
night and early Tuesday as this secondary surge of colder air
moves into our forecast area. Lows on Monday night will once again
be very cold in the teens over much of the area (20s over our
southern zones), while the increased northeasterly winds also lend
to wind chill readings below zero in the mountains and perhaps
across far northern portions of our area, with readings in the
single digits to lower teens over most of the rest of our region
during the overnight/early morning hours Monday night/Tuesday
morning. Additional cold weather products will more than likely
become necessary during this time. A brief period of high gap
winds could also impact Guadalupe Pass Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday should once again only reach
into the mid 30s to lower 40s over most of our area. Clouds will
be on the increase late Monday night along the passing front and
also in association with a shortwave trough that will be crossing
our region. There could be enough moisture and weak ascent to
allow for a few light snow flurries over portions of the Trans
Pecos (and possibly the Permian Basin) late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, but the lower levels of the atmosphere will be
relatively dry, so no accumulation or impacts would be expected.
Confidence in light snow occurrence remains very low (10 percent
or less) but is something we will continue to watch for over the
next couple of days.

The cold surface ridge shifts to our east on Wednesday, with lee
troughing looking to develop across eastern New Mexico and west
Texas. Surface winds should once again become southerly to
southwesterly, allowing for warmer temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon. Highs are forecast to reach into the lower to mid 50s.
Yet another upper level trough digging across the northern and
central plains will send another cold front southward into our
region Wednesday night, with slightly cooler temperatures
anticipated on Thursday. Overnight lows remain cold in the 20s for
Thursday night with temperatures back into the 50s on Friday. Dry
weather is expected during the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR has returned to all terminals as strong winds continue to
diminish and dust settles. A cold front located near LUB will
continue to move south, switching winds to the north later this
morning. A stronger front will arrive toward the end of the
current TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               50  19  36  17 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 61  20  37  18 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70  28  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64  23  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           51  22  35  20 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    53  17  34  17 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    57  20  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     53  21  37  19 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   55  22  38  20 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     58  22  37  20 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...29