Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201046
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
546 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals. Light SE winds this morning then gusting to around
18-20kt through the afternoon and evening at TX TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge, centered INVOF 4 Corners, was building
southeastward and by 00Z/Saturday will be centered INVOF
northeast New Mexico. Despite the expected increase in 5h heights,
the 85h temperatures are forecast to decrease by 1-1.5C today.
Yesterday`s high temperatures were about 13-18F over the 85h
temperatures and today that will yield highs from around 103 in SE
NM to 105-108 across the Permian Basin and 110 along the Rio
Grande. 5h heights will be highest Saturday and Sunday. MOS
numbers and 85h temperatures for Saturday are pretty similar to
today and show a definitive increasing trend Sunday.

For now, on Saturday, we will lean toward highs close to 105 most
areas, but warmer in the far eastern CWFA (lower elevations east
of the Caprock) and SE NM. We will trend temperatures higher on
Sunday by a degree or 2 in most places. The heat Advisory, which
is already in effect for today, will be extended through Saturday.


On Monday the subtropical ridge will build back west and models
show a cold front will move south through the Plains, but looks
like it will not make it south of I-20 until late Monday/Tuesday
AM. The northern tier of CWFA may experience some relief from the
oppressive heat Monday and then most other areas on Tuesday when
the front pushes on south. For now, the best shot of precip looks
to be late Tuesday/Wednesday AM as GFS depicts a shortwave trough
in N/NW mid-level flow. Possibly another mid-level shortwave
trough Thursday AM and Friday AM. Still hot though Wednesday-
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    106  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      104  73 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        104  77 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 101  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  71  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                         101  71 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          96  62  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport          105  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                        105  76 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          105  75 105  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Saturday for Andrews-Big
     Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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