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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251848
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
148 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Upslope flow and orography along with weak impulses aloft should be
sufficient to gin up some isolated convection late this afternoon.
Initial indications are that some discrete convection may briefly
attain supercellular characteristics, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats.  However, this activity should become
more multicellular in nature and diminish in intensity as cold pools
congeal and sensible heating is lost as anvil coverage increases and
MLCAPE decreases.  The best chances for convection this late this
afternoon and early this evening will be off the Davis/Glass
Mountains and adjacent plains, gradually shifting east southeastward
toward the lower Trans Pecos.  Convection is then expected to
dissipate with loss of sensible heating. Elsewhere sig wx nil. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 50s at higher elevations to the
upper 70s along the Rio Grande in Big Bend National Park.

Tomorrow is almost a rinse and repeat of today, with the potential
for low ceilings to develop along the east-facing slopes of the
mountains.  Another round of convection, this time forced off the
Guadalupes and Sacramentos, will encounter sufficient moisture and
instability to perhaps become severe in the afternoon, with damaging
winds the primary threat. But as this activity moves east, it will
encounter a more stable air mass and as such should diminish greatly
before reaching the Permian Basin. Highs Tuesday will range from
around 80 at higher elevations of Guadalupe Mountains National
Park to near 102 at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend National Park.

Convection should wane out west before sunset Tuesday evening with
loss of sensible heating and the collapse of the planetary boundary
layer.  Winds should begin to veer to more of a southeasterly
direction, limiting the potential for early morning upslope
cloudiness some. Lows Tuesday night are forecast to be in the mid
50s at the usual locations in Guadalupe Mountains National Park to
the mid 70s along the Rio Grande around Castolon in Big Bend
National Park.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

The exciting weather dwindles in the long term. A large upper low in
the PacNW will sweep north into Canada while a separate upper level
low slowly meanders across the Great Lakes, with the upper ridge set
up over Baja CA. Strong southerly surface flow will develop in
response to lee troughing in CO, helping to keep temperatures around
5-7 degrees above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s for most. The
remnants of a shortwave that will move through Tuesday night may
still be lingering south of I-10 by Wednesday afternoon, allowing
convection to develop across the higher terrain out west. Limited
precipitation is expected as the lower levels start to dry out with
the pattern shift, but a few storms capable of strong wind gusts may
be possible.

Thicknesses increase Thursday as the ridge pivots eastward a bit and
the trough over the PacNW is absorbed into the upper pattern. Strong
southerly surface flow will continue, and both Thursday and Friday
will be well above normal in the low to mid 90s. Precipitation
chances will be lower both days, although a new upper low over the
PacNW swings down to CA on Friday, and a shortwave ahead of the low
will move across the area. As the shortwave reaches us Friday
afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across
the Davis Mountains and areas across the west. Similar to Wednesday,
limited moisture means these storms won`t be capable of much
precipitation, but rather some strong gusty winds.

For the weekend and into early next week, the area returns to
southwesterly flow aloft as the upper low settles over CA/NV and
southerly surface flow holds steady. Temperatures begin to cool
slightly ahead of the low to the upper 80s to low 90s, still above
normal. A few disturbances will move across Saturday and Sunday, so
have included the possibility for some precipitation both
afternoons. The better chances look to be off the higher terrain and
areas further west.

-Zuber


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

MVFR ceilings will prevail for at least a few more hours at all
area TAF sites with the exception of KHOB, and there is enough
uncertainty in the cloud cover around KHOB to warrant a TEMPO
there through 19Z. Thereafter, conditions improve to VFR at all
sites, with these conditions to persist through 26/18Z. Generally
easterly to northeasterly winds will persist as well. There does
exist a non-zero chance of convection impacting KFST between
25/20Z and 26/02Z, with the potential of producing MVFR ceilings,
variable and gusty winds, and even large hail, but confidence in
this scenario is sufficiently low to exclude for now and will
amend as trends dictate. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  90  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 66  90  63  91 /  20  30  20  20
Dryden                   68  88  67  90 /  60  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            67  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           63  83  61  84 /  10  40  20  20
Hobbs                    62  87  61  88 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                    60  86  58  86 /  20  50  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     67  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   68  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     69  92  66  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...70