727
FXUS64 KMAF 160353
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1053 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

We continue to monitor satellite this afternoon as Cu develops
across portions of Lea County south into the Trans Pecos. Hi-res
models indicate this is an area of potential convective development
over the next few hours. High levels of moisture at the surface and
intense afternoon heating has allowed for a conditionally unstable
environment across the eastern half of the area. A couple of storms
could go severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. These storms will slide east into the Permian Basin, but
weak flow aloft will keep them from making it too far.

A breezy, mild night is expected with rain chances diminishing
before midnight. Sunday looks like another hot one with highs back
near 100 or above for most locations. Will issue a Heat Advisory for
the western half of the area which will likely be extended into
Monday. There will be another shot at some isolated storms,
though mostly confined to the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Come Monday, the upper pattern remains largely stagnant across our
region with a large upper trough across the western US, a ridge
across the eastern US, and a separate segment of ridging across
northern Mexico and Baja. The weakness between these two areas of
ridging allows an inverted trough to push into Texas mid-week
steered by the eastern US ridge. While Monday/Tuesday features more
relatively quiet and hot days with afternoon storms limited to the
Davis Mountains, this inverted trough could bring an appreciable
pattern change for the second half of the week. At the very least,
this feature will bring in plenty of rich low-mid level moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico which should also dampen high temperatures
some as well. As far as how much precipitation could result from
this, the strength/location of the trough will be pivotal into how
expansive rainfall could be and there remains uncertainty both model
to model but also run to run. The range of possibilities could still
be anywhere from some additional showers/t`storms in the Davis` to
more widespread rain showers stretching into the Permian Basin.
Still, the main takeaways from today`s trends for the late-week rain
is that Thursday looks to bring the best chance for rain, with
locations along/south of I-10 likely seeing the highest rainfall
totals. With added clouds/rain chances, high temperatures will be
limited into the 80s for most on Thursday/Friday, returning back
into the 90s for the weekend.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KMAF VWP shows a 35 kt LLJ in full swing tonight, which will keep
winds elevated into Sunday morning. Return flow continues Sunday
afternoon, gusty at times, w/forecast soundings developing a
fairly widespread cu field, w/bases ~ 5-7 kft AGL. A 50+kt LLJ
Sunday night will keep return flow elevated then, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  75 100  75 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                101  70 105  72 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                  100  75 101  75 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton           101  74 105  74 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           97  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    96  69 100  70 /   0  20  10  10
Marfa                    97  63 100  62 /   0   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     97  75 100  74 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   97  75 100  74 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                    102  75 105  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Sunday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44