813
FXUS64 KMAF 141931
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Current radar is picking up some echoes in southeastern NM as well
as the Big Bend. However surface observations are not picking up any
rainfall so the radar echoes are likely dense tropical altostratus
streaming into the area from TS Ileana in the eastern Pacific off
the coast of Mexico. The abundant, and thick, cloud cover is putting
a damper on temperatures today as readings have hardly budged in the
past three hours. If we can`t get rainfall, then cooler temperatures
will have to do and we will enjoy what we can get. Models are
showing upper level winds becoming less favorable for this tropical
fetch of moisture to continue and we should see some clearing
overnight and into Sunday. Less clouds tomorrow means more heating
and highs should be a few degrees warmer and any rain chances should
be gone.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Ensemble model analysis indicates that the forecast upper low/short
wave trough over the western CONUS will progress slowly east
northeastward. An upper level ridge will remain over west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico through much of next week. Confidence is
high (> 80th percentile) that surface temperatures, especially
highs, will be unseasonably warm through Thursday, but a change is
in the air for next weekend. During much of the work week, highs
ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to 102 to 107 at Rio
Grande Village are forecast. Overnight lows will be warm as well,
with lows in the mid 50s at higher elevations to the mid 70s along
the Rio Grande. In fact, with a modicum of moisture in the air, lows
may flirt with record warmth at KMAF! The upper low/short wave
trough (it`s hard to determine at this time what form this trough
will take) will approach the region Friday, and with it comes an
increase in precipitation chances, mainly across southeastern New
Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, in closer proximity to an
approaching weak cold front and better upper-level lift. QPF appears
to be on the light side, with at best a half inch of precipitation
likely over the northeastern Basin Friday evening. A return to more
seasonable temperatures appears likely next weekend. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions and light occasionally gusty winds will continue
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  97  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  96  69  94 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   73  96  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  88  66  86 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    67  93  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  90  61  89 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  95  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  95  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     70  98  71  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...10