157
ACUS11 KWNS 261714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261713
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-261845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...far eastern Kentucky...far northeast
Tennessee...far southern West Virginia...extreme western
Virginia...extreme western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 261713Z - 261845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
central Appalachians region as a line of storms approaches from the
west. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a QLCS tornado
cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address
the increasing severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS continues to rapidly track eastward
across the OH and TN Valley areas with an extensive history of
damaging gusts, and numerous measured 45+ mph gusts (as sampled by
the Kentucky Mesonet). Surface temperatures have warmed into the
upper 70s to near 80F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, with MLCAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear (with vectors oriented
normal to the leading line of the approaching storms) is rapidly
increasing to 50 kts as a 500 mb speed max approaches the central
Appalachians. As such, damaging gusts are expected to continue east
of Tornado Watch 315 for at least a few more hours, and a WW
issuance will be needed downstream.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   36168080 35708159 35618242 35798314 36018352 37078335
            38048243 38328141 37858071 37098055 36168080