Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 242042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242042
MOZ000-242245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected...central and southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242042Z - 242245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible over central
and southwest MO through the early to mid evening. Only isolated
storm coverage is expected, lending uncertainty to the need for a
severe thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of storms
developing within a pre-frontal confluence zone over central MO and
agitated cumulus along the front/dryline over western MO and into
far northeast OK. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower
80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 deg F. Modifying
the 18z Springfield, MO raob with 20z surface conditions, indicates
4700 J/kg SBCAPE or MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Per the 18z raob,
moderate westerly flow gradually strengthening with height to 50 kt
around 250 mb, will support storm organization. Any robust updraft
will potentially be capable of acquiring supercell characteristics.
Large to very large hail will be the primary risk given the
isolated/cellular character of the storm type. Localized severe
gusts could accompany any larger thunderstorm core.
..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 37429450 38329335 38429280 38209175 37989116 37629113
37299146 36579263 36559351 36589434 36889448 37429450