646
FXUS64 KMEG 170418
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1118 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Updated to increase the coverage of fog over north Mississippi.
Dew points are in the upper 60s with clearing skies and light
winds across the Midsouth. As a result at least patchy fog can be
expected. A few light showers continue across southern portions of
the Midsouth, but are quickly dissipating. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected over the next several days. Temperatures
will trend warmer this week, but should remain below 90 degrees
across most of the region.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Isolated showers will continue to move out of the Mid-South this
evening, with dry conditions expected tomorrow through at least
Saturday. High temperatures will be near normal the remainder of
the week, generally in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The story of two different weather patterns is currently
unfolding across the Mid-South. The northeastern half of the area
has largely clear skies, with temperatures reaching into the low
to mid 80s under a sunny sky. Meanwhile, across the southwestern
half of the area, a soggy pattern continues with broken to
overcast skies, some light rain continuing, and temperatures in
the 70s. The remnant moisture from Francine currently trapped
across the southwestern half of the area will finally begin to
move out of the area this evening, leaving behind a warmer and
drier weather pattern through the remainder of the week. As for
tonight, dew point depressions are pretty low under a clearing sky
and light winds. As such, wouldn`t be surprised if patchy to
locally dense fog were to develop for many. Any fog that does
develop should quickly mix out shortly after sunrise.

For the remainder of the forecast period, the Mid-South will
remain under a weak ridge influence, allowing a drier and warmer
weather pattern to move back into the area. This pattern will
likely remain largely unchanged through at least Saturday, with
several models hinting at it sticking around into early next week.
After many days of rain, I am sure much of the area is okay with
dry conditions. Plus the recent rain was steady enough that some
drought improvements are likely. As for our temperatures through
the remainder of the week, expect for high temperatures generally
in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR. As skies remain clear, winds remain calm, and ample left
over moisture from previous rainfall is present, fog with reduced
vsbys is expected to impact JBR/MKL/TUP early this morning,
before lifting around sunrise. Light northeast winds will remain
through the TAF period.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH