096
FXUS64 KMEG 170817
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
317 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A showery pattern with a few thunderstorms will continue today and
Saturday along with mild temperatures. A warming trend and dry
conditions will return Sunday and continue until Midweek. Highs
Monday and Tuesday could approach 90 degrees. Our next chance of
showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday as another cold
front approaches from the west. Highs after midweek are expected
to be in the low to middle 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An occluded front is currently located along a line from Union
City, TN to Forest City Arkansas, into northeast Louisiana. This
feature should push across the remainder of the Midsouth by
Sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler today featuring highs in the
middle 70s across most of the area.

We will remain in southwest flow with an active 100-110kt
subtropical jet stretching from south Texas, across the ArkLaTex,
into Middle Tennessee. This pattern will not change much until a
trough shifts across the Mississippi River Valley midday Saturday.
As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the Midsouth. The threat of strong or severe storms should
be minimal today and tomorrow although frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall is common with any thunderstorms this time
of year. Rainfall totals have trended a bit lower. Portions of
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northern portions of
west Tennessee may see slightly over an inch of rain with one
quarter to one half on an inch expected across the remainder of
the Midsouth. A flood watch remains in effect for northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northern portions of west
Tennessee through 7PM this evening.

After the trough shifts east of the Tennessee River, Sunday into
early next week, should be dry with warming temperatures. A fairly
high amplitude ridge will shift across the region Sunday and
Monday with its axis shifting across the middle Mississippi River
Valley Monday night. This feature should keep us dry. However,
the NBM, along with other numerical guidance, has backed off a
bit on the widespread 90 degree temperatures early next week. As a
result, we lowered temperatures back into the upper 80s across
most of the area. A few 90 degree readings still look possible in
north Mississippi.

By midweek, a broad trough developing over the western half of
the CONUS will put us back under weak southwest flow. High
temperatures will cool back into the low to middle 80s with a
return of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Confidence
in the forecast Wednesday through Friday is low due to
significant differences in guidance. However, the overall trend
certainly looks cooler and wetter for the 2nd half of the work
week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Will maintain a brief TEMPO for TS, associated with elevated warm
front lifting north from north MS overnight. Confidence is low,
but latest CAM consensus has edged up TS chances to warrant
keeping the status quo. Global models do show some 250mb (FL0350)
divergence which may aid convection overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ009-018.

MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB