806
FXUS64 KMEG 131804
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
104 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Another beautiful, though a bit warmer, day is on tap for the
Mid-South. A 1016 mb high pressure remains fixed over the region
leading to light and variable winds under clear skies. Today`s
highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Fog will likely
develop in areas along the Tennessee River and low lying areas as
skies remain clear and winds go calm overnight.

The current forecast package is on track.

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Dry and progressively hotter conditions are expected each day
until Sunday. Rain chances return with slightly less hot
conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

GOES nighttime satellite depicts clear skies coupled with most
observation sites reporting calm winds at this hour. Low dewpoint
depressions less than 2 degrees in some areas may allow patchy
fog to develop early this morning, especially east of the
Mississippi River. This scenario will likely repeat itself for the
next several overnight periods as surface high pressure sits over
the Mid-South and precludes any substantial wind or cloud cover
from developing.

The main story of this forecast period is heat ramping up this
weekend. Midlevel ridging will start to build over the southeast
CONUS on Saturday, trapping a hot air mass in place through
Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will jump to the mid 90s and
continue climbing into the upper 90s on Sunday. Dewpoints should
just barely exceed 70 degrees, so the heat index may nudge into
triple digits but not enough to warrant any heat products. This is
an unseasonably hot airmass that will leave temperatures 6-7
degrees above normal this weekend.

As the midlevel ridge amplifies further and shifts over to the
Mid-Atlantic region, southerly flow will make a stark return early
next week. This will allow Gulf coast moisture to surge up the
Lower MS River Valley and support rain chances around 20-30% on
Monday. Though guidance continues to trend southward on the axis
of precipitation, moisture will be plentiful and thus diurnally
driven convection may pop up in the afternoons any day next week.
Unfortunately, the heat looks like it is here to stay in the
extended forecast period. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC
outlooks depict a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures
(which is about 90 degrees for mid June).

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. -BR is
possible at MKL and TUP near sunrise, due to light and variable
winds overnight. Winds will shift towards SW/W as surface high
pressure slides east tomorrow morning.

ACH/AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3/ACH