465
FXUS62 KMFL 020504
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
104 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The latest short range models is showing that a low level ridge
of high pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters
tonight into Sunday, as a mid to upper level through moves through
South Florida. At the same time, the short range models are
showing a possible coastal trough setting up over east coastal
areas late tonight, due to the winds over the interior and west
coast metro areas will become light and variable with winds of the
Atlantic waters will remain around 20 knots from the east. There
is also an increase of moisture to the region tonight, due to a
mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Caribbean Sea into
the Bahamas.

This weather pattern will lead to development of showers and
thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters tonight which could work
into the east coast metro areas especially over Broward and Miami-
Dade counties. Therefore, POPs have been raised tonight into the
scattered range. Rest of the South Florida should remain dry
tonight.

POPs have also been increased into the likely cat across South
Florida on Sunday due to the mid to upper level trough moving
through the region. The focus will be over the eastern areas in
the morning hours before shifting into the interior and west coast
metro areas in the afternoon hours, due to the easterly steering
flow pushing the activity westward through the day hours.

There could also be some heavy rainfall from any showers or
thunderstorms that do develop tonight into Sunday due to the
increase moisture and PWATs getting up to 1.7 to 2 inches by
Sunday afternoon. There could be some heavy rainfall with any
storms that do develop tonight into Sunday.

The High risk of rip currents continues for the east coast beaches
of South Florida through Sunday evening along with the SCA
conditions for the Atlantic waters.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main feature of influence in the near-term for our area will be
seasonably strong sfc. high pressure currently positioned just off
the coast of North Carolina. This high is supporting breezy easterly
flow over the area this afternoon which will focus any afternoon
thunderstorms over the gulf coast and/or the Gulf waters. It remains
to be seen if a gulf breeze will even occur today given the strong
synoptic gradient, however if it does materialize it would likely be
the primary focus for any afternoon activity. Although low-lvl lapse
rates remain steep and DCAPE values will be in excess of 1000 J/kg,
weak flow aloft combined with dry mid-lvl air should generally limit
convective intensity and coverage, with gusty winds being the main
threat with any storms which do form. Easterly flow will persist
overnight resulting in warmer overnight lows (mid to upper 70s) for
the east coast compared to the interior and west coast (generally
lower 70s). Additionally scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the east coast, but
particularly over the Atlantic waters (where nocturnal instability
will be maximized).

The western Atlantic high will shift eastward on Sunday, but still
maintain easterly synoptic flow over our region, while at the mid-
lvls a shortwave will dip southeast into the area. The approaching
shortwave, combined with a likely greater inland progression of the
Gulf breeze should result in greater coverage of showers and storms
relative to today. Given the easterly regime, morning/early
afternoon activity would likely be more focused near the east coast,
while the stronger and more widespread activity in the mid-late
afternoon period would be focused over SWFL and the Interior. High
temperatures will be typical of an easterly regime ranging from the
mid 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s over
Interior and SWFL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A mid-level trough will move across the region to close out the
weekend and kick off the work week with increasing moisture and
the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the normal
diurnally-driven pattern on Monday. By Tuesday, the trough axis
exits into the Atlantic waters and the pattern begins to return
to something more diurnally-driven with morning Atlantic showers
transitioning into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms
by afternoon and early evening.

The surface high will continue to linger around the region
through midweek before the next frontal boundary emanating from
low pressure over Canada enters the southeastern United States.
The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by
late in the week. South Florida will be wedged between the stalled
frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture
in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high
back into the Atlantic will mean a transition to southerly to
west-southwesterly flow across much of the area to close out the
forecast period Saturday and Sunday.

The warm airmass combined with flow over the peninsula will mean
a considerable warming trend through the week which could lead to
heat illness risk climbing by late week. This will need to be
monitored, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features
both to the north and to the south, in case of changes which could
create some major revisions to the forecast for these time
periods. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled will continue to be
the message for a good part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the period,
especially across the east coast locations. Some stronger storms
may result in brief IFR ceilings and visbys. Easterly winds 10-15
kts with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon into early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fresh to strong E-NE winds will continue through tonight over the
Atlantic waters before dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria
by Sunday morning. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this afternoon over the
Gulf stream, and then gradually decrease to under 5 ft by Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the evening and overnight
periods will remain possible the next few days.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Breezy easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for
the east coast beaches through Sunday. The risk will begin to
decrease early next week as easterly flow decreases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  77  88  78 /  60  50  60  40
West Kendall     87  73  89  74 /  60  50  60  40
Opa-Locka        88  76  90  77 /  60  50  60  30
Homestead        88  76  87  77 /  60  50  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  87  78 /  60  50  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  86  76  87  77 /  60  50  60  30
Pembroke Pines   89  77  90  77 /  60  50  60  30
West Palm Beach  87  75  88  75 /  50  50  60  30
Boca Raton       87  76  88  77 /  60  50  60  40
Naples           92  74  92  75 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...CMF