Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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737 FXUS62 KMLB 232003 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... KEY MESSAGES: - High rain shower and storm chances with locally heavy rainfall into mid week - High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values at 100-107 degrees each afternoon .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Currently-Tonight... Current KMLB radar imagery shows numerous showers and scattered lightning storms over much of east central Florida (mainly over the interior and along the Volusia county coast). Convection has been slow moving due to weak wind fields. Scattered to numerous showers (PoPs ~ 60-70%) and scattered lightning storms are forecast through this evening with coverage forecast to diminish shortly after sunset before ending by midnight. The main hazards associated with lightning storms into this evening will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short amount of time with slow moving showers/storms), and wind gusts up to 30-40mph. South to southeast winds at 5-15mph are expected to become light and variable overnight. Monday... The western Atlantic ridge will slowly move east tomorrow as a major shortwave trough deepens over the Northeastern CONUS. South to southeast winds at around 10mph are forecast into the afternoon to the east of the Orlando metro with west to southwest winds at 5-10mph to the west. The forecast is similar tomorrow with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms expected to develop near the Treasure Coast before coverage increases into the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers (PoPs ~ 50-70%) and scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and early evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and boundary collisions occur between the weaker west coast sea breeze and outflow from previous storms. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Tuesday-Saturday (modified previous discussion)... Moisture becomes reinforced on Tuesday as an area of low pressure lifts off the northeast U.S. coast and an accompanying surface boundary sinks towards Florida. Mid level high pressure across the southern U.S. retreats westward into mid week as a shortwave trough develops over the southeastern US. Another boundary sinks toward the state into Thursday, keeping PWATs elevated into late week. In response, coverage of afternoon showers and storms remain high (60-70%) each afternoon through the mid and long term forecast. A diurnal sea breeze development is expected each afternoon. Light west to southwest flow with a slightly stronger east coast sea breeze is expected Tuesday with sea breeze collisions mostly confined to the central to western side of the peninsula. West to southwest low level flow becomes more predominate mid to late week which will generally favor the inland extent of the west coast sea breeze through late week, and any sea breeze collisions are favored across the central or eastern side of the peninsula. Guidance then suggests a transition to easterly flow into the weekend. The greatest hazards with any developing storms continues to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes and periods of locally heavy rainfall (1-3" a short amount of time). High temperatures remain steady through the period and warm into the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Peak heat index values will generally range between 102-107 through late week. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Currently-Monday... Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to move offshore into this evening. South to southeast winds at around 10 to 15kts are forecast diminish into Monday morning at 5 to 10kts before backing southeast into the mid morning and afternoon. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into Monday morning over the local Atlantic with offshore moving showers/storms expected in the evening. The main hazards associated with lightning storms will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up to 35mph. Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft with up to 4 ft over the offshore Volusia county waters tonight. Tuesday-Thursday... Light southwest to west flow develops over the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Another afternoon of showers and storms are forecast across east central Florida, particularly across the interior terminals and MLB northward along the coast. VCTS ongoing with TEMPOs from 18-23Z today, with MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Activity will begin to diminish after 00Z, with quiet conditions across the Treasure Coast terminals and lingering VCSH at the remaining coastal and interior terminals through 06Z. ESE winds this afternoon will become southerly and variable overnight. Winds pick back up out of the SW across the interior and at DAB and TIX, with the sea breeze developing around 15Z from MLB southward, making winds easterly. VCSH will be possible along the sea breeze from MLB southward after 15Z, with increasing shower and storm coverage forecast as the ECSB progresses inland tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 93 76 93 / 30 60 30 70 MCO 74 93 76 92 / 40 70 30 70 MLB 74 91 75 91 / 30 50 30 60 VRB 74 90 75 91 / 30 50 20 50 LEE 76 94 77 94 / 50 70 30 70 SFB 75 94 76 94 / 40 70 30 70 ORL 75 93 77 93 / 40 70 30 70 FPR 73 90 74 91 / 30 60 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fehling AVIATION...Tollefsen