406
FXUS62 KMLB 251139
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
739 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR through at least 14Z within a weak pressure gradient
environment. Light SW to W flow will turn onshore (E) around 10
knots btwn 16Z-18Z at coastal terminals, increasing up to 15 knots
possible toward 00Z. The sea breeze storms should stay just west
of the coastal terminals so will handle with VCTS there. Higher
coverage of TSRA forecast over the interior assocd with boundary
collisions aft 20Z. Have added a TEMPO for MVFR conds in TSRA for
MCO/SFB/LEE btwn 21Z-24Z with lingering VCSH a couple/few hours
past 00Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today-Wednesday...A typical summertime diurnal heating pattern will
promote scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
today. The east and west coast sea breeze are expected to develop in
light west to southwest background flow. A sea breeze collision is
forecast east of where it was observed yesterday, with 00Z guidance
suggesting it occurring in vicinity of the Orlando metro.
Have mentioned scattered (30-50%) PoPs through the early afternoon
along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze. Coverage of showers
and storms (60-70%) increases across the interior counties as the
sea breezes collide late in the afternoon into the evening. Steering
flow should remain light enough to limit high coverage of showers
and storms being pushed back towards the coast, but have kept a 30-
50% mention of showers and storms along the coast through the
evening hours. A similar set up is expected Wednesday. However,
slightly stronger westerly winds could allow a sea breeze collision
to occur closer to the I-95 corridor with more storm push back
toward the coast in the evening. The greatest storm hazards each day
include heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes,
and localized gusty winds. Temperatures remain slightly above
seasonal values, generally in the low 90s. Mid 90s will be possible
along and north of the I-4 corridor today. Persistent muggy
conditions will produce a moderate to major heat risk each day, and
peak heat index values up to 106 are forecast.

Thursday-Friday...A surface ridge axis is extended westward across
the Straits of Florida. Westerly flow prevails locally, favoring a
sea breeze collision across the central or eastern side of the
peninsula each day. There remains some uncertainty in the amount of
moisture and overall storm coverage through the period. Global
models continue to suggest the potential for a drier airmass to
advect from the Gulf, but little has been resolved when comparing
model runs from 24 hours ago. A GFS solution continues a much more
aggressive, drier solution (PWATs ~ 1.5-1.7). The ECMWF holds onto
higher moisture as a boundary sags across the southeast U.S. Have
held PoPs steady with this forecast package (60%) and will continue
to monitor moisture trends. Afternoon temperatures remain in the low
90s each day with peak heat index values up to 105.

Saturday-Monday...Light southerly flow develops into the weekend
while the western extent of the Atlantic ridge holds influence. A
typical diurnal pattern of afternoon showers and storms continues.
High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today-Saturday...Light offshore flow shifts southward each afternoon
as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes
southerly on Saturday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze
in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally
10 kts or less. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft
across the far offshore waters. High coverage of summertime
showers and storms are forecast each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  75 /  50  30  70  20
MCO  94  75  91  76 /  70  60  70  20
MLB  91  75  91  75 /  50  30  70  30
VRB  91  74  91  74 /  50  40  70  20
LEE  94  76  93  76 /  70  40  70  20
SFB  94  76  93  76 /  60  50  70  20
ORL  94  76  92  77 /  70  60  70  20
FPR  92  74  91  74 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Kelly