754
FXUS62 KMLB 170928
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
528 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 524 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...Lower Precip Chances Through Tuesday...
...Breezy/Gusty Onshore Winds through mid week...
...Deteriorating Marine/Surf Conditions begin Today...

Today-Tonight...Upper level high pressure centered over the
Carolinas will remain in place today, with the ridge extending over
the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure centered just
off the coast of New England will slowly shift north/northeastward,
while the axis remains extended southward over Florida. Locally,
onshore flow will continue, with breezy conditions developing by the
morning with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Lower rain chances
and slightly drier conditions today, with forecast PW values ranging
from 1.2-1.4" into this afternoon. Highest rain chances (PoP 20
percent) will be confined along the coast as well as from Orlando
north and eastward. Have taken out the mention of lightning for
today and tonight over land areas today, with isolated lightning
storms remaining possible across the Atlantic waters this afternoon
and overnight, mainly from Cape Canaveral northward. Temperatures
will be seasonable with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy
once again with lows in the low to mid 70s. With the increasing
onshore flow, rough surf and a moderate risk of rip currents exist
at all area beaches today.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... Upper level high pressure centered over
the Carolinas early Tuesday will shift slightly northward through
the period. Surface high pressure off the New England coast will
remain in place with its axis over the Florida peninsula
retreating slightly through the day. With the high pressure
remaining in place, onshore flow will dominate, with breezy
conditions continuing with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible.
Increasing moisture will allow for slightly increased rain and
storm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecast PW values
will increase from 1.0-1.3" to 1.5-1.7" in the afternoon, which
will support scattered showers and lightning storms. High rain
chances (PoP 30-50 percent) will be from the I-4 corridor
southward, with PoP 20 percent occurring N/NW of the I-4 corridor.
Despite the increased rain and storm chances, the forecast QPF
remains generally 0.10-0.20" or less. Temperatures will be
slightly less, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s with near 90
degrees N/NW of the I-4 corridor. Overnight lows will once again
be in the low to upper 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday... The ridge axis will remain over Florida through
early weekend as the center shifts slightly westward from the NE US
late week. Surface high pressure extending over the Florida
peninsula on Wednesday will retreat northward into late week. While
most models are in agreement that an increase in moisture across
Florida will occur mid to late week, model solutions diverge with
timing and placement of a surface trough that is forecast to form in
the western Atlantic and generally move W/WNW towards the eastern US
into late week. Locally, increasing rain and storm chances are
forecast Wednesday and Thursday with PoP 50 percent area wide on
Wednesday, and 60 percent area wide on Thursday. However, exact
timing and placement of the highest QPF remains considerably
uncertain. Heavy rainfall will be possible late week if the
aforementioned surface trough reaches Florida by Thursday as it
approaches the eastern US. Breezy onshore flow will persist through
mid week, with wind speeds generally 10-15 mph (and breezy along the
coast)late week and around 10 mph into the weekend. Afternoon highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through late week, with mid 90s
possible into the weekend, mainly across the northern interior.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Surf
conditions will also deteriorate through the week, due to onshore
winds and building ocean swells. This will increase the risk of
life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, along with rough
surf.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 524 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Today-Tonight... Deteriorating sea and boating conditions today.
Expect breezy onshore flow, with wind speeds generally around 15 KT,
except 15-20 KT across the offshore Treasure Coast waters today.
Winds will increase to 15-20 KT across all the waters, except
nearshore Volusia, tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in
these waters as winds become 15-20 KT. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet,
increasing to 5 ft in the Gulf stream waters overnight. Isolated
showers through the period, with isolated lightning storms possible
this afternoon and evening.


Tuesday-Friday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected
through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it
moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will persist through the
period , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with winds
increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters Wednesday/Thursday.
Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on
Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday, and 7-10 ft on Thursday
before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft.
A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across the offshore
waters starting Tuesday, and expanding to all the waters on
Wednesday. Increasing rain and storm chances mid to late week, with
scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be
possible. Rain chances will decrease slightly into late week, with
scattered showers and lightning storms remaining possible.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. Some isolated, light showers will be
possible through the period, especially along the coast. However,
coverage is forecast to be too low to include a VCSH mention at
this time. Easterly winds will increase to around 15kts Monday
morning into early Monday afternoon. Gusts up to 25kts are
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  87  75 /  20  10  30  30
MCO  88  75  87  75 /  20  10  40  20
MLB  88  77  88  77 /  20  10  40  30
VRB  88  76  87  76 /  10  20  40  40
LEE  91  75  90  75 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  89  74  89  74 /  20  10  30  20
ORL  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  40  20
FPR  87  76  87  75 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy