Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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863 FXUS62 KMLB 201431 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1031 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A few sprinkles or passing isolated showers remain possible through the morning, though activity continuing into the afternoon remains uncertain. Most locations look to remain dry until a more notable push of moisture arrives this evening and tonight across the area, in association with a tropical disturbance northeast of the Bahamas. The NHC nudged the probability of development for this disturbance to 40% earlier this morning, though if anything becomes of it, the local impacts remain very similar to previous forecasts. Breezy to gusty conditions will persist through this evening, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. A general decrease in wind speeds is expected after midnight. PoPs were updated to reflect the latest hi-res guidance and may still be a bit generous. A slight chance to chance of showers arrives around sunset and later from the east, with the highest chance of rainfall along the Volusia and northern Brevard County coast. Temperatures remain on track to reach the 80s/low 90s (inland) this afternoon. A High Surf Advisory and high risk of rip currents remain at area beaches, so beachgoers are encouraged to stay out of the water. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Onshore winds become breezy today with wind gusts between 20-25 kts at all terminals. Lingering VCSH is forecast to diminish by 14Z with mostly dry conditions into the afternoon. A mention of precip returns this evening into tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Winds veer overnight as the low pressure feature moves inland across northeast Florida. VFR conditions are currently forecast but will monitor the potential for MVFR CIGs and VIS across the north tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Today-Friday (modified previous)...Breezy and gusty winds linger today into tonight, as Invest 92L, current northeast of the Bahamas, moves towards the local waters. Winds 15-20kts this afternoon veering northeastward, then decreasing after midnight to around 10-15kts. By Friday morning, winds are forecast to be southeasterly. Seas 6-9ft linger into tonight, before subsiding through the day on Friday. Seas forecast around 4-6ft by Friday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through tonight and continue for the offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet through mid-morning Friday. Scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded lightning storms are forecast through tonight and into at least Friday morning, especially near and north of Cape Canaveral. Saturday-Monday...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining under 15kts. Seas 3-4ft becoming 2-3ft through the period. However, greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore-moving convection in the afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 75 90 77 / 40 60 50 20 MCO 88 75 93 77 / 20 30 40 20 MLB 87 75 90 78 / 30 40 30 20 VRB 87 74 91 77 / 20 20 30 30 LEE 90 76 94 78 / 20 30 60 20 SFB 88 74 93 77 / 30 40 50 20 ORL 88 75 93 78 / 30 30 40 20 FPR 87 73 90 77 / 20 20 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Law