777
FXUS62 KMLB 170010
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
810 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Brief MVFR CIGs possible along
the coast with brief --SHRA in steady onshore flow. On Monday,
gusty east winds 15-20 knots gusting 25 knots will produce
crosswinds at MCO.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection has pushed well west of the FA in increasing east
flow. Min temps will hold in the upper 70s/near 80 along the coast
but settle into the mid 70s interior. Brief passing sprinkle/
light shower possible along the coast. Removed thunder from the
forecast for tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday-Tuesday...A mid level high is expected to remain centered
over the Carolinas Monday with surface high pressure beginning to
slip seaward through the day. Breezy onshore flow is forecast to
increase during the morning hours, reaching 15 mph (gusts 20 to 25
mph) inland with slightly higher sustained winds at the coast
(around 20 mph, gusts 25 to 30 mph). Monday features the lowest
rain chances of the week, due in part to an overall lack of
moisture and forcing. Adjustments to the precip forecast may be
needed if early morning marine showers linger a little later into
the morning. Otherwise, a good amount of dry time and sunshine
will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s
(far interior). Similar temperatures are expected Tuesday with an
increase in moisture along the coast and over the southern half of
the forecast area. This will result in slightly greater shower
and isolated storm activity, maximized during the afternoon hours.
Despite this, QPF remains generally less than 0.10-0.20". Breezy
conditions are once again expected, with gusts reaching up to 30
mph over a larger portion of east central Florida Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday-Saturday...Model solutions quickly diverge from mid to
late week, though many are in agreement on an increase in
available moisture over the FL Peninsula. Daytime highs will
remain similar, in the upper 80s/low 90s, eventually trending
upward late week into the weekend. Increasing rain and storm
chances are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, though exact timing
and placement of the highest QPF remains considerably uncertain.
Instances of heavy rainfall are possible if a surface trough,
forecast to approach the eastern U.S., reaches Florida by
Thursday. Through the extended period, onshore flow of at least
10-15 mph will persist with breezy conditions at the coast. Surf
conditions will also deteriorate through the week, due to onshore
winds and building ocean swells. This will increase the risk of
life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, along with rough
surf.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight...Easterly flow 10-15 kt continue, increasing toward
daybreak Monday to 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are possible late
tonight over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas
2-3 ft, building to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream early Monday
morning.

Monday-Thursday (modified previous)...Onshore winds winds
increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu with
the approach of a surface trough over the western Atlc, which
does have some potential to organize by midweek as it ventures
quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon and up
to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up to 7 ft
offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps up to 10
ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach 12 ft
offshore by early Thu. At the very least, Cautionary Statements
will turn into Small Craft Advisories later this week. Shower and
isolated lightning storm chances will go up by midweek across the
local waters as moisture increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  88  76  87 /  20  20  20  30
MCO  75  88  75  87 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  77  88  77  88 /  10  20  10  40
VRB  76  88  76  87 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  76  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
SFB  75  89  75  89 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  76  89  76  89 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  76  87  76  87 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Kelly