Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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702 FXUS62 KMLB 010149 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... (Through Saturday) Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Key Messages: - Most areas to remain dry through Saturday. A few sprinkles possible overnight, with isolated showers along the Treasure Coast. - Deteriorating boating conditions through tomorrow. - Somewhat better chances for showers and storms from Sunday into early next week. Another quiet evening of weather across East Central Florida. RAP analysis indicates an initial surge of drier air is sweeping southward into the area, leading to more comfortable humidity for the end of May. However, a bit of moisture remains trapped near the top of the PBL, which could be enough to spark a few onshore- moving sprinkles overnight near the coast. Additional modified continental air reaches the district Saturday, leading to a mainly dry forecast. The exception to this will be the southern Treasure Coast where PW values remain just high enough to support 20% shower/storm chances in the afternoon. Sprawling high pressure continues to pass by to our north. As it does, expect continued breezy conditions near the coast overnight, holding temperatures in the mid/upper 70s along and east of US-1. Elsewhere, upper 60s/low 70s will be commonplace. East breezes will likely gust from 15-25 mph again on Saturday. Highs will warm into the mid 80s beachside to near 90 from the Kissimmee Basin into Lake County. You will find patchy smoke in the digital forecast south of Holopaw (Osceola Co) and near Palm City (Martin Co) due to nearby wildfires. This may cause locally reduced visibility; slow down and increase following distance if you encounter smoke while driving. Breezy and dry conditions could cause any active fires to quickly spread on Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Overnight...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for all local waters from Brevard Co southward as winds are freshening due to a tightening pressure gradient. ENE winds 15-20 KT with seas building to 3-5 FT nearshore, 4-6 FT offshore. Slight chance for a shower. Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Sat-Tue...High pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north Florida into early next week. The pressure gradient will remain tightest across the southern waters and will support 20 kts through Sat so continue a Small Craft Adv (SCA) south of Sebastian Inlet until 02Z/10PM Sat night, but will end SCA across the Brevard waters at 14Z/10AM. Conditions gradually improve Sun through Tue as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. Seas reach 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape on Sat. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft Tue. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Through Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 For the weekend, high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer Easterly and remain quite breezy/gusty on Sat, even windy at the coast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving onshore the Treasure coast. Models are trying to hint at a little moisture even pushing further northwestward on Sun, but remain skeptical. Max temps will be very close to seasonable with mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But the persistent onshore flow will produce smaller diurnal temp ranges along the coast, keeping min temps there in the mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next week, the dry airmass will gradually modify with rain/storm chances slowly increasing 20-40 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue- Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb, returning to the mid 90s interior Wed-Thu. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR continues with steady northeast winds becoming easterly on Saturday. Gusts 15-25 KT will diminish overnight before resuming during the day on Saturday. A few BKN cloud bases to around 4 KFT possible along the Treasure Coast by later Saturday afternoon (after 20Z). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Sat-Tue...The breezy/gusty onshore (ENE/E) flow will continue into the weekend as the pgrad remains fairly tight. Shower and lightning storm chances will remain below normal through the weekend. The best chance for convection will be along the Treasure Coast. Min RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections each afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast. The increase in wind speeds will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersion values and combined with increasingly dry fuels, will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions thru at least Sat across all of east central Florida. Any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. Scattered showers and storms should gradually increase in coverage next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 85 71 86 / 0 0 10 20 MCO 72 87 70 88 / 0 10 10 40 MLB 76 85 74 85 / 0 10 20 30 VRB 76 86 73 86 / 0 10 20 40 LEE 70 89 69 90 / 0 10 10 30 SFB 70 88 69 90 / 0 0 10 30 ORL 72 88 71 89 / 0 10 10 30 FPR 74 86 72 85 / 0 20 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575. && $$ UPDATE...Heil AVIATION...Heil DECISION SUPPORT...Schaper/Watson