Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
491 FXUS62 KMLB 201735 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 135 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers present on KMLB radar early this afternoon have led to VCSH inclusion for areas from MCO northward into mid-afternoon. Otherwise, areas are expected to remain mostly dry today. To the south, higher confidence in showers and storms this afternoon, with VCTS included for the Treasure Coast, as the sea breeze moves inland. A TEMPO group has been included for SUA, which has the highest chance for seeing any reductions due to convection. Any convection is expected to diminish into late evening. Winds have already veered northeasterly behind the sea breeze for coastal terminals from around TIX southward. The sea breeze is forecast to move inland into this afternoon, with gusts up to 25kts possible. Winds will diminish after sunset and back northerly once again. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture (PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from the Cape southward and moving inland. Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will be the main threats. N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the interior, south of Orlando. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around 15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 84 70 85 / 10 30 0 10 MCO 70 87 70 90 / 10 40 0 10 MLB 72 85 72 86 / 20 30 10 10 VRB 70 87 71 88 / 20 30 10 20 LEE 68 88 71 91 / 10 40 0 10 SFB 68 87 70 90 / 10 40 0 10 ORL 71 88 71 90 / 10 40 0 10 FPR 69 87 70 87 / 20 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Leahy