803
FXUS64 KMOB 190922
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
422 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Mostly dry conditions will continue the next two days as the
upper ridge continues to build westward over the southeast. The
only rain chances continue to remain right along the immediate
coastline where moisture and influences of the outer moisture
envelope of Potential Tropical Cyclone One over the southwestern
Gulf are more noticeable. A few isolated to maybe scattered
showers could make it to the I-10 corridor but overall not much in
the way of rain is expected. However, PTC one will have an impact
on area beaches as waves continue to be significant leading to a
HIGH risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches.
Really not a good week for going into the Gulf and folks should
continue to follow beach flags and avoid the water. The one good
thing will be temperatures as cloud cover and a rather stiff
easterly wind will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. BB/03

&&

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An large, elongated upper ridge extending from the western
Atlantic to the Desert Southwest will slowly sag southward into
the weekend while an upper shortwave passes south of the northern
Gulf Coast. The upper ridge will then retrograde westward over
the weekend while upper troughing advancing eastward over the
northern Great Plains and Great Lakes regions. This trough is then
expected to dig southward along the Eastern Seaboard on Monday.

Surface ridging across the eastern CONUS will also slowly sag
southward into the weekend while a surface low pressure area
associated with the northern trough develops across the Western
High Plains and lifts east-northeastward. A cold front associated
with this surface low is expected to advance southeast into the
Ohio River Valley region on Monday and stall.

A typical summer-time diurnal pattern will persist through the
weekend with isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms
southeast of I-65 expected Friday afternoon, and across much of
the area both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Rain chances look to
increase early next week due to increasing weakness aloft as the
upper ridge retrogrades westward, with a good chance to likely
showers and thunderstorms on Monday and likely coverage on
Tuesday.

Daily highs will stay warm in the lower to middle 90s through the
period, with some locations pushing into the upper 90s (about 3-7
degrees above normal) Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows remain
toasty with lower to middle 70s through the remainder of the
week with upper 70s along the beaches. Overnight lows early next
week should be in the middle to upper 70s with lower 80s along the
beaches. Surf heights will remain around 5 to 7 feet through
Thursday afternoon, with a High Risk of rip currents remaining
through Friday night becoming Moderate over the weekend. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A moderate to strong east-southeasterly flow will persist
throughout the marine zones through Thursday in response to PTC
one in the Bay of Campeche and a large area of high pressure over
the southeast. Hazardous conditions for Small craft will persist
through Thursday as seas range around 7 to 9 feet offshore with 2
to 3 feet in nearshore bays and waterways. Winds and seas are
expected to slowly diminish by the weekend as Potential Tropical
Cyclone moves west and the gradient weakens. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  73  90  73  93  72  94  74 /  40  20  40  20  20  10  20  10
Pensacola   90  75  91  76  92  76  92  77 /  30  10  50  30  20  20  30  10
Destin      91  76  91  76  91  78  90  79 /  20  20  50  30  30  20  30  10
Evergreen   90  68  90  69  93  71  94  72 /   0   0  20  10  20  10  30  10
Waynesboro  90  70  92  70  94  69  97  72 /  10   0  10  10  10   0  20   0
Camden      90  69  90  69  92  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10  10   0  20  10
Crestview   93  69  93  69  94  71  96  73 /  10   0  40  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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