731
FXUS66 KMTR 190355
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
855 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Upper level trough will dig over California through midweek, with
breezy onshore winds continuing and temperatures near seasonal
averages prevailing through Thursday. The trough will remain in
place, but weaken for Friday and the weekend, with warmer
conditions developing once again across the inland areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Near term weather concerns continue to be fire weather focused.
Fortunately, the two more notable fires in the CWA, the Point and
Coast Fires, are showing signs of much less fire activity than 24
hour. For the record, neither fire is contained and are still be
attended to by fire personnel. The one notable fire, which is not
in the CWA, is still impacting the region. That fire is the Sites
Fire and is NE of the Bay Area. It is impacting the Bay Area with
haze and smoke. Northerly transport flow ushered in smoke from
the north leading to haze and reports of smoke across the North
and East Bay. Any clearing of said smoke/haze has been slow going.
Latest forecast guidance continues to advertise a shift to more
westerly transport flow, which should help push some of the
smoke/haze eastward. The latest satellite imagery does show some
eastward movement of the smoke/haze. That being said, did update
the forecast to include more haze across the N and E Bay this
evening. While fire activity is less this evening, elevated fire
weather conditions still prevail. A quick sampling of
observations in the Bay Are and Central Coast still show very low
humidity with readings in the upper single digits to teens. There
are also some breezy conditions with gusts of 20-30 mph. Fire
weather concerns will ultimately diminish gradually tonight as
onshore flow increases with better humidity recovery expected.
While current satellite shows no marine layer at the moment a
shallow marine layer is forecast to develop along the coast and
move locally inland.

No other updates needed this evening.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Water vapor imagery continues to show the next disturbance
digging south along the Central Coast this afternoon, with high
clouds spreading across the region at this time. That said, the
cloud cover has done little to suppress temperatures today as
temperatures are currently running upwards of 8 degrees warmer
than this time yesterday. Onshore gradients are starting to
increase once again as well. However, not quite as strong as this
time yesterday. Meanwhile, the Fort Ord Profiler is the showing an
extremely compressed marine layer, about 200 feet currently. The
marine layer will slowly increase this evening and tonight, with
some patchy fog returning to the coastal areas during the late
night and early morning hours.

The upper level trough will remain over the West Coast on
Wednesday, with onshore flow prevailing. Temperatures will likely
cool a few degrees along the coast with the return the marine
layer, while inland areas will remain seasonal. Palmer

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The upper level trough will remain over the West, but gradually
start to fill Thursday through Saturday. As a result, a warming
trend will develop, especially for the inland areas. At this point
in time, the ensembles are hinting that Saturday will be the
warmest day, with the favored hot spots reaching into the triple
digits. However, there are some of the ensemble members
suggesting that the subtropical ridge could finally expand into
the region from the Desert Southwest, with warming conditions
persisting through the first part of the work week, especially
for the inland areas. Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the evening hours
into early morning Wednesday for all terminals. Lingering smoke
has resulted in hazy skies but has not limited visibility below
VFR. Westerly onshore winds will ease this evening. Low stratus
deck is expected to build from south to north during the overnight
hours, with KMRY the only terminal expected to drop MVFR.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty west winds will ease some this evening,
but remain breezy through the overnight. Some low stratus may
reach the Bay area by early Wednesday morning around sunrise, with
MVFR ceilings possible at KOAK, but not currently in the TAF.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to persist this evening
into the overnight hours with breezy NW winds. Winds are expected
to ease by the early morning hours with MVFR/IFR ceilings
possible at KMRY, though some uncertainty remains on the eventual
redevelopment of the marine layer.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1141 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Fresh and gusty northwesterly winds continue. Gusty winds will
diminish overall towards late Wednesday with strong breezes
persisting over the northern outer waters through the weekend.
Significant wave heights will build to 9-11 feet today, abate
through Friday, and build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of
the the weekend as larger northwesterly swell enters the waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...AC

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