558
FXUS64 KOHX 250654
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
154 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A cluster of showers and storms have developed over the last hour
just west of I-65. There is ample elevated instability with values
generally between 1500-2000 J/kg. A couple instances of sub
severe hail will be possible with this cluster. Additional
activity may move in from the west closer to dawn. Again, some sub
severe hail may be possible. CAMS have the overnight activity
lingering into the morning with a break as we go into the
afternoon. A few scattered showers and storms may develop late in
the afternoon. Afternoon instability values will be in the
1500-2000 J/kg with around 25 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. A storm or
two may be strong with gusty winds and some hail.

Sunday continues to be our main focus in regards to severe
weather. CAMS show the potential for some activity during the
morning into the afternoon from the remnants of Saturday`s
activity from the plains. A wind threat could be possible with any
of that activity. The primary concern, however, is during the
evening into the early overnight hours. Storms are expected to
develop west of the area and move into Middle Tennessee as an MCS.
The environment ahead of those storms will be volatile with the
HREF showing median SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg at 00z
Monday. Mid level lapse rates will likely be around or in excess
of 7.5 C/km. Effective bulk shear will be in the 40-50 kt range.
With that said, all hazards will be possible. Damaging winds will
be the greatest threat, but some instances of severe hail will be
possible along with some embedded circulations. Some instances of
flash flooding will be possible as well given the saturated
grounds in the area.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Some showers and storms will linger into Memorial Day as the
surface front slowly moves through the area. We finally get a
break from this active period starting on Tuesday as a large
trough sinks out of Canada into the Great Lakes region. Locally,
we`ll have a drier airmass with northerly flow. This will
translate to a few pretty nice days for late May. Highs on
Wednesday could touch 80 in a few spots, otherwise the area will
see highs in the mid to upper 70s. The mornings will be noticeably
cooler as well. Lows Thursday morning and Friday morning will be
in the 50s. The large scale troughing will move east by Friday
with upper ridging building into the area. Temperatures will
respond with highs climbing into the low 80s on Friday and likely
mid 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours. A line of
thunderstorms currently over Missouri and Kentucky will eventually
push southeast into the area, bringing impacts to CKV, BNA, and
MQY starting around 09Z and pushing further east to later impact
SRB and CSV between 10Z-12Z. Storms will bring heavy rain and
gusty winds, reducing vis during impact and temporarily bringing
MVFR cigs in. Winds behind the storms will be out of the SW
around 5 kts.

For Saturday afternoon, pop-up thunderstorms are possible, but
activity looks widely scattered. Because of that, going to
leave TS mention out of the taf for this cycle. Will likely
include VCTS next cycle for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  69  91  72 /  50  20  50  90
Clarksville    83  68  89  70 /  30  20  50  90
Crossville     81  63  84  64 /  80  20  30  90
Columbia       86  68  90  68 /  50  30  40  90
Cookeville     81  65  85  66 /  80  20  40  90
Jamestown      81  63  84  65 /  70  20  40  90
Lawrenceburg   85  67  89  68 /  60  20  40  90
Murfreesboro   86  67  90  68 /  60  20  40  90
Waverly        84  68  89  68 /  30  20  50  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Baggett