431
FXUS64 KOHX 041104
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
604 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Quiet night across the mid state so far tonight after the isolated
showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to some areas along
with flooding. Areas that received rain overnight are more likely
to have fog develop before sunrise, as well as areas near bodies
of water. Surface temps are already at dewpoint temps as of this
hour, with light winds, but high clouds are holding off more
widespread fog for now. Ob sites across the area are showing
visibilities dropping to around 3 to 6 miles currently, so keeping
an eye on additional fog developing as well as visibility values
dropping further.

Plains trough and shortwave activity will be enough for some
showers and thunderstorms to develop today, with one round moving
through in the morning in the west. The cluster of showers and
storms will continue eastward, with more isolated to scattered
development possible during the afternoon. The stronger
instability remains west of the Plateau, but deep layer shear is
on the weaker side. Still, can not rule out some strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms today, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts, some hail, and heavy rain leading to
flooding. Should any storms impact areas that saw heavy rainfall
yesterday, those areas will be more vulnerable to flash flooding
today. PWAT values above 1.5 to near 1.8 inches looks likely, so
the atmosphere has plenty of moisture, and with storm motions on
the slower side, flooding remains a risk with any stronger storm
that develops today.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look to remain
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially as we
get closer to sunrise. The Plains trough will move into the
Midwest, bringing the trough axis closer to the mid state by late
morning Wednesday. Most CAMs develop scattered showers and storms
especially in the southern and eastern portions of the area
through late morning. In the afternoon, however, CAMs back off
with scattered convection despite the strong instability and
decent deep layer shear. PWAT values remain high, and higher than
Tuesday in fact, so any storm that develops Wednesday will have
the potential to put down heavy rainfall and increase the flooding
risk. But, with stronger instability and shear, strong to severe
storms will remain possible ahead of an approaching cold front in
the afternoon and evening as well. Again with the CAMs backing off
on convection Wednesday afternoon, confidence is not high enough
to really nail down exact timing and locations of any potential
strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon, but stay tuned for
updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

After the front passes later on Wednesday, we are looking at
cooler and drier weather. Some lingering showers and storms will
be possible Wednesday night into the day Thursday, but after that
we are looking drier through Sunday. A Midwest trough will keep
northwest flow aloft over the mid state, so look for cooler temps
as well, with highs Friday and Saturday in the low to mid 80s, and
even upper 70s on the Plateau. Sunday looks to have a shortwave
trough move through, but ensembles are not quite on board with
exact timing just yet. Have chance pops in on Sunday for now.
Models do agree that with a trough lingering over the Midwest
early next week, cooler high temps in the low to mid 80s look to
stick around through at least next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Shwrs slowly move in from SW. Uncertainties at terminal locations
per shwrs areal coverage, confidence not there to mention prevailing,
but certainly not rule in vcnty. Upper level distrubance moving W
to E 04/12Z-04/21Z should enhance tstm chances. Mentioned best 2
hr window for coverage terminals. Another round of tstms around
05/09Z-05/12Z and took same approach. MVFR/IFR vsbys best 2 hr
window for tstms. VFR ceiling prevail thru 04/06Z, MVFR ceilings
during tstms 05/09Z-05/12Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  70  83  68 /  80  70  80  40
Clarksville    83  70  81  65 /  60  80  80  20
Crossville     79  64  78  64 /  80  60  80  80
Columbia       84  68  83  67 /  80  70  80  40
Cookeville     81  67  79  66 /  80  60  90  70
Jamestown      81  65  79  64 /  80  60  80  70
Lawrenceburg   83  68  83  68 /  80  70  80  50
Murfreesboro   84  68  84  67 /  80  70  80  50
Waverly        83  68  82  65 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....JB Wright