185
FXUS64 KOHX 211731
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

If I were a betting man, my money would be on many people
stepping outside today and immediately saying, "It sure feels
like summer out here." They wouldn`t be wrong: dew points in the
mid to upper 60s and almost every site in Middle TN in the low 80s
at 10 am? Yeah. That`s summer. However, it`s May 21st. That means
it`s still spring and that means severe weather. Not today, but I
gotta tell you, models have starting singing a song of a very
active holiday weekend ahead. Yesterday didn`t look like much, but
it looks a lot different today.

In the short term, today will remain quiet. High pressure is
dominating the area and while some heat-of-the-afternoon cumulus
clouds will eventually develop, we should remain rain-free.
Afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s in many spots, but we
should come up short of the record 94 degrees from 1941.

We`re still looking at tomorrow being the start of our active
stretch of weather. This begins with a round of showers and
thunderstorms crossing the TN River just before sunrise tomorrow.
This first wave should be of the general variety and almost every
model shows these petering out pretty quickly -- likely only a
light shower by the time they reach the I-65 corridor. This will
start a lull in activity before the front associated this system
starts to approach mid-afternoon tomorrow. Instability is
respectable with about 30 kts of shear, so I wouldn`t write this
first round of storms off. A few strong wind gusts will be
possible (40-60 mph) with brief heavy rains through the early
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Each of the next several days will present thunderstorm chances, as
we talked about yesterday. What`s different is, now a few of the
days are standing out as having severe threats. At this time, if I
had to pick 3 of them, Friday, Sunday and Monday look like they`ll
have the best chance. Each show an all-severe mode threat: damaging
wind gusts, large hail and even a tornado threat, plus heavy rain.
Sharp mid-level lapse rates (8+ deg/km), 3000-4000 J/Kg CAPE, deep
layer and low-level shear, and several other parameters that are
fairly impressive, like supercell composites in the upper teens by
Sunday. However I wouldn`t sleep on Thursday or Saturday, either. In
addition, I still think the cumulative rainfall through the weekend
presents a flooding threat at some point due to PWs running 1.5-1.6
inches throughout the weekend. So, here`s the point: please remain
weather aware from tomorrow through Monday. Check back here, check
our website and our socials regularly for the latest. I have a
feeling the ol` weather bureau is gonna have a busy holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR will continue today with scattered cumulus clouds and good
vsby. South winds will be gusty to 20KT at times. Look for mainly
VFR through tonight as well. Scattered showers and isolated
thunder will move in from the west late in the night with only
brief if any impacts to vsbys and cigs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  85  68  83 /  20  50  70  80
Clarksville    69  83  66  80 /  70  60  90  80
Crossville     62  80  63  76 /   0  30  60  70
Columbia       68  85  67  81 /  10  60  60  70
Cookeville     65  80  65  78 /  10  40  70  70
Jamestown      64  80  64  75 /   0  30  80  80
Lawrenceburg   67  85  67  81 /  10  60  60  60
Murfreesboro   67  85  67  82 /  10  60  70  70
Waverly        68  84  65  81 /  50  60  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....13