Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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471 FXUS64 KOHX 130650 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Strong Four Corners ridge will start to push east and that is going to bring an extended period of hot temperatures to Middle TN. Highs today will push into the upper 80s to lower 90s. We will see some instability build in over eastern areas, this will bring some afternoon cloud cover but no precip expected. Dew points will also start to creep up reaching the mid 60s. With the higher humidity overnight lows Thursday night will be more mild in the mid 60s. On Friday an upper level trough will push into the Northeast and that will push a cold front to our north. The front will weaken as it pushes towards Middle TN and CAPE profiles are capped in our area. This will lead to little to no impact with the front but we will see some cloud cover. Despite the cloud cover highs will continue their upward trend with them pushing into the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Upper level ridge will continue to build east over the weekend and we will see hot temperatures in the 90s. The APEX of the ridge will be over us on Sunday and that will be the peak of the heat over the next 5 days with highs well into the 90s and possibly to 100 in some locations. The NBM continues to show a 10-50% chance for highs to break the 100 mark on Sunday. Overnight lows Sunday night will remain mild only falling into the 70s. A short wave trough will pass to our northwest on Monday and that will bring some "slight" cooling for Monday and Tuesday but it will still be hot and humid with highs in the 90s. The upper level ridge will then continue to amplify over the eastern US and we will see highs push back into the mid to upper 90s mid to late week and will remain hot into next weekend. Overnight lows will also remain mild only falling into the 70s. Given the extended period of hot daytime highs, mild overnight lows, and humid conditions we will see moderate to highs heat risk Sunday and throughout the week. The forecast is expected to remain dry through the weekend but we could see some popup afternoon thunderstorms next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some patchy fog will be possible until 12z in the vicinity of KSRB and may bring MVFR/IFR conditions at times. FEW to SCT 050 clouds develop for eastern terminals after 16z tomorrow. Light winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 68 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 Clarksville 89 64 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 Crossville 85 63 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Columbia 92 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 87 65 89 67 / 0 0 10 0 Jamestown 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Lawrenceburg 91 65 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 93 65 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 89 64 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Mueller