Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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483 FXUS64 KOHX 110507 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1207 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tweaked hourly gridded temperature, dewpoint, wind direction/speed grids blending them with previously forecasted late evening hourly gridded values. Current regional temperature trends continuing to support forecasted overnight low values. 11/00Z KOHX Sounding profile depicting moisture supporting a continuance of a few CU as these early evening hours progress but a continuance of a stable atmosphere in place as low level atmospheric ridging influences along with dry northwesterly upper level flow prevails. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 After a foggy start to the morning, the area is clear with pleasant temperatures for this time of year. Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. There is a dry surface front currently in southern Illinois through the Ohio River Valley that is diving south. This will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass into our area for tonight and tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with even a couple spots touching the upper 40s on the Upper Cumberland Plateau. There could be a few patches of fog near dawn but dew point spreads are slightly higher than this morning and the HREF is showing only a few patches of decreased visibilities. Expect more clear skies and northerly winds tomorrow as surface high pressure slides by the area to the north. We will have one more cool night Tuesday night with temperatures in the 50s before we start the summer warm up. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Temperatures will begin an upward trend on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s, but the first noticeable difference will be on Thursday with a large part of the area getting to 90 or above as upper ridging influences start spreading eastward into Tennessee. The ridging influences will only get stronger on Friday as it moves eastward. By Saturday afternoon the upper high will be parked over Middle Tennessee. Highs in the mid 90s Friday through Sunday look reasonable. In addition to the increase in temperatures, dew points will slowly climb from Thursday into the weekend. By Sunday the center of the upper high will be east of the area with some weak southerly flow increasing moisture. Some heat index values Sunday afternoon could touch 100 degrees. As far as rain chances, the best we are looking at is some isolated activity on Sunday, but not all of the guidance agrees that will happen. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light out of the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 80 57 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 79 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 74 51 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 81 54 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 75 53 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 74 51 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 79 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 80 54 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 79 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Mueller