484
FXUS64 KOUN 290745
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
245 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A pattern of warm air advection with weak upper waves moving through
continues today and tonight. The overall effect of this will be to
keep at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through the short term period.

CAMs don`t show much in the way of daytime convection. However,
models tend to struggle with this type of warm air advection / high
moisture pattern (as we saw yesterday). Additionally, as mentioned
in the previous AFD, CAMs suggest a MCV traversing the I-40 corridor
during the day, further enhancing my skepticism of the CAMs lack of
convection. For the most part, any convection should stay sub-
severe, though we could see a brief window for strong to marginally
severe storms late this afternoon (MUCAPE increases to 1000-1500
joules over southern Oklahoma / north Texas in the afternoon with
modest deep layer shear of around 40-45 knots).

Tonight, models suggest storms forming off the caprock again,
merging into an MCS before moving into our forecast area overnight
with convection lingering into Thursday morning.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Warm, moist low level flow and weak upper level flow continue to be
the rule through the end of the week, keeping daily chances for
showers and storms in the forecast.

Thursday night stands out for MCS potential as a shortwave passes
over the area. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain would be the main
risks.

With all the precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures will remain
on the cool side (upper 70s / lower 80s) through Friday.

Some weak ridging will allow temperatures to warm and PoPs to
decrease somewhat (though daily 20-30% will still remain) this
weekend into early next week.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times over western
Oklahoma tonight and also into central Oklahoma Wednesday morning.
MVFR conditions will likely accompany any storms. Northeast to
southeast wind will continue through the day Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  66  78  64 /  60  40  60  70
Hobart OK         80  64  80  63 /  20  40  60  80
Wichita Falls TX  81  68  82  66 /  30  40  50  60
Gage OK           80  62  80  59 /  10  50  70  90
Ponca City OK     81  63  78  63 /  40  30  50  70
Durant OK         81  67  79  66 /  40  50  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09