Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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731 FXUS61 KRNK 031044 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 644 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday. Daily isolated showers and thunderstorms continue for the region through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic region. A brief break in the wet weather pattern is expected behind the front on Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Warmer today and mostly dry. An isolated mountain shower/storm possible. High pressure continues to remain offshore and southwest flow will continue to supply warm and humid conditions. Areas of fog this morning and mostly cloudy skies. Fog dissipates around sunrise. Subtle ridging overhead today will keep showers and storms to a minimum, but enough daytime heating should allow for a few isolated showers and storms across the mountains. Any storms will weaken by sunset with loss of daytime heating, leaving only a few showers across the area tonight. Fog development will be possible again tonight. Temperatures warming with slight ridging, generally near to just above normal with highs in the mid upper 70s for the mountains and low 80s over the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, higher chances and greater coverage on Wednesday. 2. Above normal temperatures through the period. Tuesday will start off dry, with surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic, which will eventually shift offshore by later Tuesday. Increasing moisture in the area and warmer temperatures will lead to increasing chances for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. During the midweek, a surface low will track across southern Canada, with its associated cold front crossing through the central US. As the front tracks closer to the Mid Atlantic and the central Appalachians by Wednesday, chances for and coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase. The front doesn`t look to actually cross to the east of the area until Thursday, although there is still some timing uncertainty with this frontal passage given differing model solutions. Depending when the front finally passes through the area, showers may continue through Thursday. Temperatures will be on an increasing trend through the middle of the week ahead of the front, given some ridging aloft ahead of the upper level trough. Expecting temperatures to reach near to above normal through this forecast period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Chances of afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms continue, mainly over the mountains. 2. Slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. Flow aloft behind the passage cold front turns more northwesterly, allowing for a drop in temperatures through the end of the work week and into the weekend. The upper trough generally persists over the eastern US, which will keep continued chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm for the western mountains through the forecast period. That being said, the weekend does not look to be a total wash out, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Temperatures over the weekend will be cooler than during the work week, a few degrees below normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 635 AM EDT Sunday... Mix of VFR to LIFR across the area this morning. Valley fog has developed and will continue to impact flight conditions at select terminals for at least another hour or two. LWB especially and areas across the Carolina Foothills and New River Valley. Should see improvements through the morning once fog dissipates. Some MVFR may continue into the morning, but with gradual lifting of cigs throughout the day. A few showers this morning and these will continue into the afternoon. Fog development is possible again tonight, especially for areas that receive rain today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA could result in periodic restrictions through the period. Some BR is also possible, especially in valley locations through Tuesday. Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower) on Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR conditions behind the front. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...BMG