846
FXUS63 KSGF 102247
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Residual flooding continues after some areas received as
   much as 5 to 8 inches of rain over the past 2 days.

 - Near-normal temperatures through Tuesday, with highs between upper
   70s to low 80s.

 - Warmer temperatures return later in the week into next
   weekend, with temps potentially reaching 90 on Thursday with
   the heat expected to persist through the weekend, with temps
   in the 90s and heat index values between 90 and 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show an upper level trough from New
England into the OH and TN valley, with an upper ridge axis from
the central plains into western Ontario. In between, a northwest
flow was over the forecast area. This has allowed a cold front
at the surface to push south to near the Gulf coast, with a
secondary cold front over far southern Missouri. Cooler and
drier air with a high pressure system continues to push into the
area and most of the CWA has been sunny so far today. In
contrast to the weekend which brought widespread 1 to 3 inches
of rain and a band of 5 to nearly 8 inches of rain to parts of
the CWA. This lead to some fairly widespread flooding of which
some is continuing and will linger into the middle of the week.
Temperatures were pleasant across the area in the mid 70s to low
80s with dew points in the low to mid 50s.

Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will be over the
area tonight with cooler than normal temperatures generally in
the 50s. The surface high will slide to the east on Tuesday with
winds becoming more southerly. Temperatures should climb back
into the low to mid 80s for most locations with lows Tuesday
night in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The main upper level jet will remain well north of the area
through the period with a slight dip in the jet late in the week
allowing a surface front to push into the area Thursday into
Thursday night. Some models are showing some QPF in this time
range. Upper level temperatures in the 850-700mb layer would
suggest a pretty strong thermal cap in place during this time.
We do have low pops(15-20%) in the north for Thursday night,
but confidence in precipitation during the 7 day forecast at
this time is pretty low. The warm temperatures aloft and
increased moisture should lead to warmer than normal
temperatures by the end of the week into the weekend with
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values
from 90 to 100.

&&

.AVIATION /0Z TAFS THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 542 PM
CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected throughout the TAF
period. Winds of 5 knots will shift from northerly to southerly
slowly overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 14:
KVIH: 95/1952

June 16:
KJLN: 95/2016



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 15:
KSGF: 74/2022

June 16:
KSGF: 75/2022

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise/Kenny
CLIMATE...Camden