424
FXUS63 KSGF 101103
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
603 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Residual flooding continues after some areas received as much
   as 5 to 8 inches of rain over the past 2 days.

 - Near-normal temperatures through Tuesday, with highs between upper
   70s to low 80s.

 - Warmer temperatures return later in the week into next weekend,
   with temps potentially reaching 90 on Thursday with the heat
   expected to persist through the weekend, with temps in the
   90s and heat indices between 90 and 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024


Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:

As a result of all of the recent rainfall, many rivers (especially
within the Osage Basin) remain in River Flood Warnings and an Areal
Flood Warning in effect for all but the corner of southwest Missouri
through 7am this morning. After the upper-level trough that
accompanied the active weather of the last few days progressed
eastward out of the greater Ozarks region, the dissipation the
pressure gradient at the surface is resulting in winds at the
surface being all but nonexistent. Those light winds paired
with the abundant moisture that we`ve been left with means
conditions are ripe for fog development.

Witching hour night fog and RGB satellite products clearly
paint a picture of finger- shaped areas of locally dense fog in
river valleys, with less dense fog throughout much of southern
Missouri. Surface METAR and personal weather stations indicate
widespread humidity values of 90% or greater with winds below
3mph (if any are recorded at all), so fog development is
expected to continue, becoming more widespread and dense into
the early morning hours. Held off on a Dense Fog Advisory
because confidence isn`t high in widespread visibilities below
1/4 mile, though areas along/near river valleys will see
significantly lowered visibilities and later dissipation times
that could result in AM commute travel impacts.

Monday and Tuesday:

An upper-level ridge will continue to build over the central CONUS,
and the Ozarks will be set up under an upper-level northwest flow
regime, with light northerly winds at the surface bringing
cooler air with it. This northwest flow will keep temperatures
seasonal, within the upper 70s to low 80s range. Dry air on the
backside of the weekend system will keep cloud cover low as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The next week will be rather synoptically-driven. An upper-level low
developing off the Rockies will push over the southern Plains on
Tuesday and boost a building low-level high over the Gulf.
Meanwhile in western Canada, a low aloft will begin developing
and moving east. On Wednesday, the southern Plains upper-level
low will be absorbed by the increasing zonal flow to its north
and a ridge will start strengthening over the Rockies behind it,
while the Canadian upper-level low/associated through lifts
northeast. In the low-levels, the high over the Gulf will
continue building, strengthening, and expanding. This will
transition the Ozarks region into a southwest flow regime.

Enter, scenario 1: favorable double high pattern. As the Canadian
trough (now in eastern Canada) from early in the week lifts,
its positively-tilted remnants will funnel low-level air to the
southwest into the Rockies. From there, the upper-level western
Canadian high will build eastward through the rest of the week,
and the low-level winds that were pushed into the Rockies will
begin to build a secondary high over the northern Plains while
the Gulf ridge continues to dominate the southern Plains. By
Friday, the two low-level highs (which dominate temperature
advection) will merge, strengthening a low-level jet up the
Rockies into a 40-50kt warm-air-pumping machine from the Mexican
Plateau through the central Plains into Canada. Temperatures
will surge well above normal into the 90s for the first time
this summer, with heat indices near 100.

Scenario 2: the two systems don`t interact favorably and we end up
under a regular old Gulf high, without the boost to the low-level
jet from the secondary high in the northern Plains. We end up
with temperatures above normal, but not by more than a few
degrees.

End result: ensembles split the difference, so I also split the
difference in the grids. Regardless, a late week warmup is coming.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Clear skies and light winds to begin the work week. The only
thing preventing one-liners at SGF and JLN is a slight wind
increase from below 5kts to 5-10kts in the afternoon, even
though magnitude/direction changes won`t result in any impacts.
Elsewhere across the Ozarks, areas in and around river valleys
will see fog (some dense) this morning, but this fog is not
expected to be widespread nor affect any TAF sites.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 14:
KVIH: 95/1952

June 16:
KJLN: 95/2016



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 15:
KSGF: 74/2022

June 16:
KSGF: 75/2022

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden