Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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497 FXUS63 KSGF 081904 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few scattered storms this afternoon. Strong to severe storms possible this evening and tonight. Good chance for heavy rain and flooding to occur tonight with many locations expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain. Pockets of repeated heavy rain may lead to some amounts of 5 to 7 inches of rain and flash flooding. - A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a fairly zonal pattern across the CONUS with the main jet energy along the northern tier states. Some low level jet energy was from the southwest to northeast across southern Missouri. Precipitable water values from the 12z SGF sounding were 1.85" which eclipses the daily max climatalogically. MCS remnant clouds cleared out this morning and we`ve been seeing some cumulus develop as the air becomes unstable across the area this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s were yielding surface based CAPE values in the 1000-3500 j/kg range. Rest of the afternoon and tonight: A surface boundary was shifting into the area from the southwest and is expected to become fairly stationary over the area tonight. PW values are expected to remain very high over the area in the 1.8 to 2.2" range. A few scattered storms may develop during the afternoon and may be strong to severe with hail to the size of ping pongs and wind gusts up to 60 mph. More numerous storms are then expected this evening into the overnight with the same severe weather risk along with widespread heavy rain. The best chances for the heaviest rain will be along and north of the frontal boundary roughly in a wide corridor from Nevada to Springfield to Eminence. Repeated thunderstorms with heavy rain within this corridor are expected tonight with widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain. Some localized areas of 5 to 7 inches of rain can not be ruled out which will likely lead to flash flooding. A flood watch is in effect for the entire area through Sunday afternoon. Sunday: Thunderstorms with heavy rain will be ongoing Sunday morning along with likely flash flooding where the storms trained across the same locations. The overall trend will be to shift south into southern Missouri and eventually out of the area with less coverage during the afternoon hours and mainly over the south. The cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Early next week: We`ll be on the western edge of the upper level trough with northerly flow that will bring a strong area of surface high pressure into the area. This will force the higher dew points and temperatures to the south and should keep the rain chances out of the area, while bringing a cooler and drier air mass to the region for the beginning of next week. Highs will generally be in the 70s on Monday and Monday night with lows in the 50s. Tuesday: The high pressure system will begin to shift to the east and we will start to see some return moisture beginning to creep back into the western CWA. An upper shortwave will dive southeast and potentially clip our southwest CWA, so we have some low pops (15-25%). Wed - Fri: Moisture will continue to increase over the area along with afternoon/evening instability so low pops will be in the forecast on a daily basis. The main upper level support will be well to the north of the area during this period, so widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 For the 18z TAFS, increasing afternoon instability and a nearly stationary front draped across the area will be the focus for potentially late afternoon convection and more likely evening and overnight convection across the area. Very heavy rainfall is expected with the thunderstorms given the high moisture content in the atmosphere. MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible with the convection which will be most likely after 01z this evening. Clearing will then take place by mid to late morning on Sunday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg