451
FXUS63 KSGF 072041
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
341 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Initial round of thunderstorms to move through the region overnight.
  Some storms may be severe with hail to the size of quarters
  possible.

- Additional chances for strong to severe storms late Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday night though main concern will be potential of
  heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding.

- A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and
  Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Surface high pressure that led to seasonably warm temperatures and
comfortable dew points in the 50s this afternoon will continue to
depart into the Ohio Valley setting up a transition to unsettled
weather this weekend.

Convective allowing models are in agreement with a subtle mid level
wave kicking off a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over central
Nebraska, forward propagating into a moderately unstable airmass
into southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas later this evening.

Questions exist in how the MCS will propagate into Missouri as there
is a significant instability gradient orientated along the
Missouri/Kansas border as a southerly low level jet across OK into
KS veers and weakens into western MO.  With instability diminishing
further into the state, elevated convection is expected to diminish
in intensity then diminish in coverage as it tracks toward Lake of
the Ozarks region later tonight.  Additional more isolated
convection will be possible into southeast Kansas as well.

Highlighted the greater likelihood of storms across central
MO...with diminishing chances to around 50% along I-44 and then
15- 30% along the Arkansas border...with impacts tied to
quarter size hail mainly west of Highway 65 and north of Highway
54.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The remnants of the MCS diminishing eastward Saturday morning along
with the combination of outflow boundary(s) and a north-south
orientated warm front will become the focus for storm development
late Saturday afternoon into the night.

With sunshine increasing as overnight cloud debris thins, moderate
to strong instability will develop as MLCAPE increases to 3000 J/KG.
Negatives include an EML/surface capping plus weak 0-6KM shear bring
questions to the overall development and organization of convection.

A weakening west to east orientated cold front will eventually lay
out over the forecast area Saturday night, leading to concerns over
a significant rainfall event.  Ahead of the front, precipital water
will increase to near 2 inches as the warm front clears the forecast
area and a 40-50 knot low level jet reforms.

Training convection appears likely with conservative QPF ranging
from 1-3 inches, though LPMN amounts approaching 6 inches and the
max HREF over far southwest MO offering nearly 7 inch amounts.
Surface soils have dried a bit but still remain moist potentially
leading to a considerable flood threat.

As his system departs east on Sunday...upper flow will weaken as the
storm track shifts further north shift.  A weak wave will advect
across the Plains midweek leading to a limited chance for rain...but
for most the work week will be dry. Temperatures that start out
unseasonably cool will gradual warm back into the upper 80s by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the rest of the day across
the CWA. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move into the
area. However, there is some uncertainty as to how far south
these storms will extend, thus thunderstorms were mentioned as a
tempo group at KSGF, and prob30 at KJLN and KBBG respectively.
Any storms which do move through may lower visibilities to MVFR
conditions. Low-level wind shear will develop over southwestern
Missouri after midnight tonight as the low-level jet
strengthens overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann