Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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451 FXUS63 KSGF 072041 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 341 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Initial round of thunderstorms to move through the region overnight. Some storms may be severe with hail to the size of quarters possible. - Additional chances for strong to severe storms late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night though main concern will be potential of heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. - A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Surface high pressure that led to seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable dew points in the 50s this afternoon will continue to depart into the Ohio Valley setting up a transition to unsettled weather this weekend. Convective allowing models are in agreement with a subtle mid level wave kicking off a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over central Nebraska, forward propagating into a moderately unstable airmass into southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas later this evening. Questions exist in how the MCS will propagate into Missouri as there is a significant instability gradient orientated along the Missouri/Kansas border as a southerly low level jet across OK into KS veers and weakens into western MO. With instability diminishing further into the state, elevated convection is expected to diminish in intensity then diminish in coverage as it tracks toward Lake of the Ozarks region later tonight. Additional more isolated convection will be possible into southeast Kansas as well. Highlighted the greater likelihood of storms across central MO...with diminishing chances to around 50% along I-44 and then 15- 30% along the Arkansas border...with impacts tied to quarter size hail mainly west of Highway 65 and north of Highway 54. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The remnants of the MCS diminishing eastward Saturday morning along with the combination of outflow boundary(s) and a north-south orientated warm front will become the focus for storm development late Saturday afternoon into the night. With sunshine increasing as overnight cloud debris thins, moderate to strong instability will develop as MLCAPE increases to 3000 J/KG. Negatives include an EML/surface capping plus weak 0-6KM shear bring questions to the overall development and organization of convection. A weakening west to east orientated cold front will eventually lay out over the forecast area Saturday night, leading to concerns over a significant rainfall event. Ahead of the front, precipital water will increase to near 2 inches as the warm front clears the forecast area and a 40-50 knot low level jet reforms. Training convection appears likely with conservative QPF ranging from 1-3 inches, though LPMN amounts approaching 6 inches and the max HREF over far southwest MO offering nearly 7 inch amounts. Surface soils have dried a bit but still remain moist potentially leading to a considerable flood threat. As his system departs east on Sunday...upper flow will weaken as the storm track shifts further north shift. A weak wave will advect across the Plains midweek leading to a limited chance for rain...but for most the work week will be dry. Temperatures that start out unseasonably cool will gradual warm back into the upper 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the rest of the day across the CWA. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move into the area. However, there is some uncertainty as to how far south these storms will extend, thus thunderstorms were mentioned as a tempo group at KSGF, and prob30 at KJLN and KBBG respectively. Any storms which do move through may lower visibilities to MVFR conditions. Low-level wind shear will develop over southwestern Missouri after midnight tonight as the low-level jet strengthens overnight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Schaumann